First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

StockGuruKing (< 20) Submitted: 11/07/07 8:19 PM

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Hey StatsGeek, your short pick on 10/25 for FSLR is looking horrible. FSLR reported MONSTER earnings at the close with the stock up $38.88 in after-hour trading at $206!!! The CEO's guidance of 2008 Revenue of 800 million versus 2007 of 485 million is a 65% increase YOY. And with the addition of a 4th manufacturing plant in end of 2009, the company is poised for TREMENDOUS growth in the coming 5 years.

Your short at $151.84 is a HUGE loser. Alternative energy especially Solar is the FUTURE. Look at TSL from 20 to 62 or JASO from 18 to 60 or ASTI from 3 to 22. The trend is your friend; especially in an industry growing 100%+ per year.

FSLR must hurt considering your recent picks since the beginning of October have not fared well at all. 9 losers and 7 winners. Your accuracy is beginning to decline and impacting yor Accuracy Rating of 78.97%. Look at SpecBear who has 17 winners and 3 losers in the same time period! GO SPECBEAR!!!!

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StockGuruKing (< 20) Submitted: 11/08/07 9:30 AM

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I stand corrected: FSLR looks to open at $220 from yesterday's close: +$52.88!!!!!!!

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StatsGeek (99.99) Submitted: 11/08/07 10:08 PM

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Thanks for the insights.

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oulous (83.62) Submitted: 11/09/07 11:01 AM

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you have a stalker

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Wendatt (43.29) Submitted: 11/10/07 12:00 AM

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Why are you going after him personally?

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SavvyCaveman (99.73) Submitted: 11/14/07 12:39 PM

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don't forget, no matter how good you are, you can't win em all. stockguruking, i'd get trading and quit whining if i were you.

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GS751 (90.58) Submitted: 11/14/07 8:16 PM

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cant win em all in this game but if you buying stock at 100x projected 08 earnings you are not going to be in the game very long. This momentum driven bubble will end soon.

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millionairefools (99.52) Submitted: 11/18/07 5:47 PM

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hahahaha, this was a great reply to the dumb inane s**t.

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TMFBent (99.98) Submitted: 11/20/07 8:53 AM

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Statbear's Solar Stalker is pretty funny. Wonder if s/he actually read the 10Q to know exactly why earnings were such a "surprise." Hint: it's not because this is such a great company.

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RealMaKoi (97.25) Submitted: 11/29/07 1:54 PM

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The solar industry growth is real, but you're right. The entire industry is up, not just the companies poised to be the leaders. It will be the 1 or 2 companies with competitive advantages that might be worth the 100x earnings, not everyone. Take SunPower for example (see pitch for details).

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Gtrinvestor (99.97) Submitted: 11/30/07 11:18 AM

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Looks like we are not the only ones who think this thing has topped out... look at all the recent insider sales by the presidnet and board members... look out below!

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renegade49 (85.45) Submitted: 11/30/07 2:26 PM

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I think this company will be a success long term, however, at this price, I just shorted it.

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JJ2000426 (94.56) Submitted: 12/09/07 2:28 AM

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FSLR has a dark future ahead of itself due to a reason few even realize. It critically depends on the tellurium metal, an extremely scarce natural resource on earth. Glocal production of tellurium is only 215 tons a year. Industry demand excluding FSLR's own already exceeded the supply. Tellurium price has gone up dramatically. FSLR will be killed by competing tellurium demands and go bankrupt within 2 years.

Read these two Seeking Alpha articles:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/55959-the-tellurium-supernov...

And:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/54614-first-solar-vulnerable...

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abitarecatania (98.86) Submitted: 12/17/07 6:49 AM

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Goldman Sachs owns more than 5% of the stock.

They really make life difficult on shorts and price the options are extreme premiums but once they move on, you don't want to be holding the bag.

Everyone sees how overpriced these 3 stocks are but what can you do? It's nice to be on their side when they have the monster run-ups after earnings, but you really don't know when they will go CROX on you.

Ugg boots are selling great, and their purposely created shortages are working like a charm just like the Nintendo Wiis. But how much longer can you keep up a p/e that's double of CROX of all stocks.

And of course NILE has a P/E of 75 and FSLR 183. Gotta love Goldman Sachs and their games.

It's no secret why they make so much money taking little guys for constant rides.

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jester112358 (98.84) Submitted: 12/21/07 2:41 AM

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I completely agree with your analysis. The earnings surprises are very contrived. Without major government subsidies, all these "alternative energy" stocks are tremendously overvalued. And CdTe is very toxic and could never be used widely in earth environments due to disposal issues. Also, very expensive as pointed out by another fool. You must understand this techology has been around since the 70s, used mostly in space application because of toxicity. Its only the new energy panic that explains the crazy valuations in this sector!

The games GS are playing since they hold 6% of the stock is amusing. How they intend to unload on the naive retail speculators will be an interesting story. Once they do shorting this will be a big point scorer for you and other fools following your wise lead. The other issue is the John Walton Estate which holds about 50% of the float. What they intend to do with their shares will be interesting. I'm holding off for a bit on the thumbs down, but would never risk capital on this obvious loser.

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Forecaster1 (80.02) Submitted: 12/21/07 6:57 PM

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GS is completely shameful with what they have done with this stock. This may be the most manipulated stock on the markets today next to RIMM.

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Forecaster1 (80.02) Submitted: 12/21/07 6:58 PM

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The first quarterly miss by this company and we will see a tumble that has not been seen since Qualcomm 1999-2000.

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dwot (99.99) Submitted: 12/26/07 2:48 PM

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Health effects of tellurium

Fortunately, tellurium compounds are encountered rarely by most people. They are teratogenic and should only be handled by competent chemists since ingestion in even small amounts causes dreadful smelling breath and appalling body odour.

Routes of exposure: The substance can be absorbed into the body by inhalation of its aerosol.

Inhalation risk: Evaporation at 20C is negligible; a harmful concentration of airborne particles can, however, be reached quickly when dispersed. Effects of inhalation: Drowsiness. Dry mouth. Metal taste. Headache. Garlic odour. Nausea.

Effects of short-term exposure: The aerosol of this substance irritates the eyes and the respiratory tract. The substance may cause effects on the liver and central nervous system. Exposure may result in garlic-like breath. Medical observation is indicated. Ingestion: Abdominal pain. Constipation. Vomiting.

Chemical dangers: Upon heating, toxic fumes are formed. Reacts vigorously with halogens or interhalogens causing fire hazard. Reacts with zinc with incandescence. Lithium silicide attacks tellurium with incandescence. Combustible. Finely dispersed particles form explosive mixtures in air.

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Donnernv (99.46) Submitted: 2/28/08 4:17 PM

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If 100% of the world's Te annual supply went to CdTe production of solar cells, it would satisfy 0.035% of the USA baseline electricity requirement.

Players can make some profits, but this is not the future of our energy needs.

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BoringIsNormal (42.04) Submitted: 4/02/08 5:12 PM

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So True

There are 2 kinds of P/E, Trailing and Forward,
Trailing P/E is 122.87 times earnings, which is outrageous.
Forward P/E estimates their growth and includes it in the Price to Earnings ratio, which in this case for FSLR is 49.51, which means that even including their estimated growth, their still 50X behind in earnings!

Even more so their book value, which is an estimate based on what they are actually worth, for ex. when a company buys or merges with another, the Book Value is mostly what they go by, and it usually doesn't exceed it by more then 2-3X in most cases. Yet in FSLR Book Value estimate, their rated based on their MRQ (Most Recent Quarter) at a whopping 13.965X book value!

I have included details below in regards to evaluating FSLR.

VALUATION MEASURES of First Solar FSLR   
Market Cap (intraday)5:   19.63B
Enterprise Value (2-Apr-08)3:   18.12B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):   122.87
Forward P/E (fye 29-Dec-09) 1:   49.51
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):   2.08
Price/Sales (ttm):   37.07
Price/Book (mrq):   17.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:   35.96
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3:   112.112

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):   665.55M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):   8.462
Total Debt (mrq):   108.17M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):   0.099
Current Ratio (mrq):   4.304
Book Value Per Share (mrq):   13.965

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):   205.95M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):   -75.69M

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TheParadox (73.86) Submitted: 6/10/08 4:25 PM

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HEY STATS GEEK... OVER HERE





dunno about you, but i took the same position a little later when i discovered this one, and its fallen about 10% ish... i got some puts on it, (i couldn't short it on my broker)... things are starting to look good aren't they?

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