Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE:FSM)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

Recs

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Player Avatar njmiles03 (< 20) Submitted: 5/18/2011 2:07:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.54 FSM Score: -51.04

My thesis is that silver will not remain below $30/oz for long in the coming months, if at all, and that volatility will continue. I would not encourage anyone to invest in silver itself in this environment. However, young primary silver miners are something else completely. As long as the price of silver remains safely above production costs, silver mines have incentive to reopen, and exploration companies are motivated to look for new potential mineable areas.

Even if silver does drop under $30 for an extended period of time, the increasing production of many primary silver miners and silver explorers/soon-to-be producers will far outweigh the drop in silver price in terms of earnings. Looking out 12 months and beyond, even in a protracted environment of, say, $20-25 silver, many explorers/young producers will easily mitigate that potential drop in silver price with their growing production, and share prices will follow suit upwards.

I'm giving a Fool's thumb up to several silver miners, b/c I believe that silver will trade above $35 later this year, and will rise over time from there. However (full disclosure), I am personally invested only in the following, due in part to their extreme production growth potential (and many of them have quite low production costs, too):

Currently Producing:
*Silvermex
*Alexco
*Aurcana

Not Yet Producing:
*South American Silver
*Wildcat Silver
*Sabina
*Bear Creek

Always do your DD, and don't forget to have fun. Fool on!

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