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LEGMAKER (< 20) Submitted: 6/15/08 8:45 PM : Start Price: $96.24 FXF Score: -1.69

The dollar has been falling like boxers who fought Mike Tyson before he was old enough to drink. Right now I wouldn’t bet on Mike Tyson, and wouldn’t bet on the Euro either. It seems we may have a perfect storm ahead, and a better way to play the oil bubble. It is very interesting how things have gone over the years, as major changes in the market have changed the way investors have and will play it. Over the last year oil has had a parabolic move upward and looking at its trading from $131 to $139 a barrel, it has looked to have topped out a couple weeks ago. It seems the traders could smell it. The change in momentum beginning with an investigation into speculators pushing the price of oil up and nothing gets politicians moving like constituents running low on disposable income (its about the only thing that gets a politician moving). When this didn’t work there was rhetoric about how the price of oil was inflated and it had nothing to do with supply and demand. Some blame ETFs such as OIL and USO, others blame speculators, I believe that most of the problem is the race between the US and China to fill their strategic oil reserves and now the US has backed off. Since this and OPEC’s words didn’t bring the price down they decided to start pumping an extra 200,000 barrels a day next month. This is not the key to getting everyone out of oil bull mode, but it was the language used. Farhan Haq, spokesman for Ban Ki-moon, stated that he was told Ali al-Naimi said that production would increase 200,000 barrels and that “the King believes that the current oil prices are abnormally high, and he is ready to restore prices to their appropriate levels.”





A move downward in oil should be expected as not too long ago the price of oil had its largest one day dollar move ever. That was a point where speculation should have been made with respect to a bearish oil move. The Euro will be adversely affected as a decrease in oil price will inflate the dollar. The dollar will strengthen as we pay less to import oil and thus decrease the trade deficit. The dollar has been rallying for a while as I believe the market believed the dollar had bottomed. OPEC stated that the price of oil must be brought down because higher prices will lower demand and hurt OPEC’s market. I think the statement was true, but there is another reason that they are backing a lower oil price. Ali al-Naimi stated last week that increasing production would do nothing in reducing the price of oil. Also, even with less demand, oil at a higher price helps OPEC. The reason I believe that they increased production was the weak dollar. Oil producing nations have bought many dollars as an investment, but also have many emerging markets such as China. These investments are in jeopardy as countries have been skeptical of increased investment as they have seen their own currency growth surpassed by losses in the US currency. If this skepticism turns into a flight from the dollar we could see a tremendous drop as investors all over the world try to release their positions. It is not a worry that the dollar is weak, as it has been for sometime, but there needs to be some assurance that it will rebound at some point. There is no problem with the US working from a deficit as the rest of the world saves as long as this debt is bought back at some point as it was done during the Clinton years.





OPEC’s move to protect the dollar will increase investment and push it higher. This is not the only thing that will push the Euro downward. Europe has seen a major move in their real estate markets over the past few years. This move has been likened to a mini US bubble as they have the same problems as the US only on a smaller scale. This along with Europe’s unwillingness to cut rates and lower chances of inflation could cut decrease their growth much more than that of the US going forward. All of this makes me quite bearish on the Euro going forward as the US dollar appreciates in the coming years.

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