Geron Corp (NASDAQ:GERN)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company which is developing first-in-class therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer and chronic degenerative diseases, including spinal cord injury, heart failure, diabetes and HIV/AIDS.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 10/2/2012 2:34:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.72 GERN Score: +19.24

Can't say I'm feeling the Geron rebound after the crushing failure of imetelstat in breast cancer and lung cancer. After all, this is the drug that Geron gave up stem cell research to focus on. A buck seventy share price may seem low, but that translates into a market cap of 225M due to years of unchecked dilution. The company only has a year and a half of cash at the current burn rate and the next catalyst will be topline phase II data for, you guessed it, imetelstat in hematologic malignancies before the end of 2012. Geron's only other compound in clinical trials is GRN1005, a relatively inexpensive acquisition in phase II for brain tumors. Another very tough indication and not a lot of reason to expect success.

Geron could certainly provide upside surprises but there's no reason for a run-up going into any of this data given the already-generous market cap. Given what's happened recently to Geron and now ArQule, I really have to question the wisdom of long positions in developmental oncology companies with unpredictable interim data catalysts. I'd better go check what's going on with Celldex.

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