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$86.70 2.42 (2.87%)
10/7/2008 10:43 AM

streetTRACKS Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

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Exchange Traded Funds

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Avatar stockpower (93.45) Submitted: 2/21/07 9:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $65.34 GLD Score: 59.39

In my personal portfolio, I'm long the real stuff, since Oct 1999, prior to the Y2K scare. At the time, it was believed that gold would no longer be used to back the World's currencies. Countries were dumping their gold in the open market and the price dropped. Too bad... because I was a buyer then, and I'm still a buyer today. I will sell when it gets around $950 to $1,200 an ounce in the next few years. there will be some ups and downs, but I think as Greenspan once said, (something like this) " markets always go higher than they should and just the reverse on the downside" I don't think the future surge in gold is as fundamental as it is perception and sentiment...it will just continue to run until it reaches a saturation point. When I go to get my groceries and the bagger asks me if I saw the price of gold today, I will know it's time to sell.

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Avatar bhessel (90.80) Submitted: 7/19/07 12:02 AM

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LOL in the long run, I agree that playing the cycles makes sense, because gold is just gold, and is probably not going to get intrinsically more valuable, whereas the cost of risk capital is a pretty historically constant 10%...therefore in the long run, the market will beat gold. Accordingly, it is logical to cash in when and if you have above average returns, as they are not going to last indefinitely.

Having said that, if the dollar does collapse, it will hurt all paper money for a time, and gold would be a good place to be in that storm, which could last quite a spell. Indeed, your grocery checkout guy may not be asking you about the PRICE of gold, but rather for you to PAY with gold...although it might make sense to get some silver for small change transactions such as those...if things really get dicey, razor blades, tobacco, alcohol, or ammo will all be good, too.

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