GenVec, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNVC)

zzlangerhans (99.67) Submitted: 1/10/2010 6:56:13 PM : Start Price: $18.80 GNVC Score: +64.29

Since GenVec bottomed (with most other baby biotechs) in March, they've reascended close to two year highs in a triphasic pattern: a rapid doubling, a steady rise over a few months, and then another double in the last month. The share price is now well above its level in 11/08 when the initial preliminary data of the phase III trial of TNFerade in pancreatic cancer was released. That shaky interim data, which really didn't support a TNFerade benefit, was poorly received by the investing community and helped GenVec's share price into the hole they've been digging out of all year.

The problem with the recent price rise is that there really hasn't been any good news about TNFerade, or any particular reason to think that the next interim analysis will be any better than the first. A recent orphan drug designation may have attracted attention back to the stock, but was there any doubt they would receive it? The orphan drug status does not represent any form of endorsement of a drug's efficacy by the FDA. The data I've seen so far argues strongly against TNFerade being a game changer in the battle against a monster like pancreatic cancer.