Great Panther Silver Ltd Com (NYSEMKT:GPL)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

Recs

7
Player Avatar Det510 (< 20) Submitted: 5/1/2011 12:36:11 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.40 GPL Score: -125.42

Have to give all the props to TFsinchiruna on this one... would have never seen this stock if not for his brilliant rantings about GPL (http://caps.fool.com/player/tmfsinchiruna.aspx)

With that said, GPL currently represents 6% of my portfolio. They are a very volatile stock, but I think there are a lot of reasons why silver will do well going forward. Many of these reasons have been espoused over and over, but the big ones in my opinion are:

1. governments of the world are still printing money like it's going out of style... being led by the two most "influential", the U.S. and the EU. Let's face it... unemployment is really high, and even higher in some places like Vegas. The housing market is in the toilet... and while it doesn't currently seem to be getting much worse, I really think that it will be a couple of years at best before we see buyers that aren't to afraid they'll buy a house that will be worth less next year.

2. debt is crazy... while I don't feel there is any chance of the U.S. defaulting, when you start looking at Greece, Portugal, Italy, California, Illinois etc... the picture becomes a lot more bleak.

3. these issues are all linked, and the next arse sandwich stands a good chance of being a global shift changer. Let's face it... economies are tied together whether we like it or not... if factories aren't producing, then raw materials aren't being bought blah, blah, blah...

4. QE2 is about to run out... if the Fed does nothing, and lets it run out without continuing something else (which I believe is the right thing to do) the pressure that will be placed on stocks will be huge. If they do something, it will greatly decrease confidence that the economy is actually getting better (which is quite debatable).

All of these things and more are working together to depress the dollar and help push folks into hard assets. For fun, I just checked what interest I'm getting on my savings account...yeah baby... 0.24% Sheesh... I knew there was a reason I didn't keep anything in the account. Put a grand in the account at the beginning of the year, and get an extra two and a half bucks for Christmas... oh wait, it won't be quite that much...

Company news on GPL can be found here:

http://www.greatpanther.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=451787&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Great-Panther-Silver-Reports-First-Quarter-Production-Silver-Increases-By-1...

From a recent news release and from an interview with the CEO:

Silver equivalents for 2011 are established using budget prices of US$1200/oz Au, US$20/oz Ag, US$0.90/lb Pb and Zn.)

Silver is within spitting distance of $50, and they're baseline for silver in 2011 is $20 an ounce... nice... real nice...

For those interested, you can download the investor package from the company here... mine maps, drill plans etc... interesting stuff...

http://www.greatpanther.com/s/IR_Portfolio.asp

From their FAQ: Q What is the cash cost per silver ounce? A The total combined cash cost per ounce of payable silver (net of by-product credits) for the year 2010 was US$7.43.

They also have they're own TV website that show various operations etc... http://www.greatpanther.tv/

Bottom line: I'm still quite bullish on silver, but not nearly as much as I was when silver was at $25. Currently I have GPL at 6% of my portfolio, another 5% sitting in SLW shares, and another 12% sitting in physical silver. Of course I like GPL, and think they will do well, but they are volatile... it's nothing to see the shares trade up or down 5+% in a day... so not for the faint of heart... in the near term silver could correct down... possibly by as much as 25% or more... heck, just look at the charts... it's up 26% or so since the beginning of the month... but I think that looking at a longer timeframe (3-5 years) silver will be higher... industrial use is up, and demand is outstripping supply.

Just my two cents of course... Do your own DD, and good luck

Chris (AirForceFool)

Member Avatar mrudolph72 (54.70) Submitted: 5/18/2011 9:29:27 PM
Recs: 0

Your timing for a correction couldn't have been more perfect. I did the most foolish thing and panic sold at the bottom yesterday. Last night I realized my mistake and set buy orders for today but with gpl opening higher I missed my entry on that one. I got some today at $3 but only about 1/3 of what i wanted. I'm writing in hopes that you can learn from my mistake. Missing the initial climb hurts worse than the "on paper" loss did.

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