Player Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/9/2011 1:57:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $23.15 GRPN Score: -66.51

Ego: We'll, lets see how I can put a postitive spin on an upthumb on Groupon, Inc?? Hmmm.... Got anything brain...

Brain: nope...drawing a blank on the spin-o meter on this one.

Ego: Well that's not going to help our credibility on this one. What happened to if you can't dazzle the Foolish population with Brilliance, baffle them with bullsh**, and if you get wordy enough their head will spin and they won't have a clue what you said??

Brain: Well, to come up with anything, even bullsh** you need at least something to work upthumb on Groupon with all the sentiment out there?? Can't even figure out how the brokers could buy this one after all the negative press, the question of how they book revenue, the lack of a moat, etc. So why did you upthumb this one???

Ego: It was an attempt at bottom fishing with the lowest possible entry so that if the shorts pile on a week from now as they often do. And an attempt to play the brokers covering their a** game with continued positive spin over the next 90 days. They don't want to look any more anal on their recommendation than they have to.

Brain: And??

Ego: Well, I'd set a downthumb on opening day at $29.98 to try to get the highest possible downthumb after about 200 other Fools expended their ammo. I was trying to look smart and I got greedy.

Brain: So you upthumb today on the one in 100 chance you MIGHT have lucked onto a temporary bottom and it might float higher than it opened earlier this week at some point due to analysts being anal and shorts piling on, but for no fundamental reason?

Ego: Yep, that's about the size of it. But at least we know whose boss around didn't stop me.....

Brain: No, but I've got this in writing now, and I can prove I wasn't responsible for this Foolishness!!!

Ego: Oh well, I see it's drifting back down to near where we lucked into it on the market selloff this morning.

Brain: We do you get we in this one......

Report this Post 14 Replies
Member Avatar Friendlysurfer (50.04) Submitted: 11/15/2011 12:21:23 PM
Recs: 0

like your comment... well, I am buying some as well, just to be a bit contra

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/18/2011 4:17:35 PM
Recs: 2

Definetly a contra call, as you can tell from my pitch, I'm not impressed by them. I don't think I'd be a buyer. I think they will be range bound for awhile. (Which might not make them a bad play in a market selloff if you're adverse to cash!).

The shorts are drooling and chatter is starting to build about grabbing the expensive shorts at a high interest premium, but IMHO it would be a mistake.

If you track IPO's, then you know they come in two flavors. Out the door flop or out the door spikes. The once that come out above their IPO price and have a low float aren't doing to go down for awhile no matter how bad the metrics. It just ain't going to happen. You can short, short again, short again, eat your shorts and someday reality will set in. Usually this happens after insiders sell after the lockup period and/or additional dilutive shares are sold.

At this stage Groupon share price will hold for awhile and those expensive shorts will not be worth the risk. There are too many other good shorts out there to play with a low float, market darling the first few months no matter how bad the metrics.

The market can stay insane longer than shorts on a low floater can stay solvent, unless it's CAPS! ;)

Member Avatar EnigmaDude (87.06) Submitted: 11/18/2011 4:33:38 PM
Recs: 1

Brain: We do you get we in this one......

(I think your brain got overloaded and started blabbering gibberish there at the end!)

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/18/2011 6:29:44 PM
Recs: 1

As if the rest wasn't gibberish..... ;)

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/18/2011 6:37:56 PM
Recs: 2

S/B: Brain: Where do you get WE in all this??

Timelapse: Nine days later:

Brain: We'll this plan of ours is working out pretty well so far! If the downthumbing Fools hadn't have been abled to bail after their 7 day hold we'd have made top on this one!

Ego: Plan of "ours"? "We"?? I thought you didn't want anything to do with it!

Brain: We'll it was me who carefully and precisely calculated the exact entry point we would need to pull this off.

Ego: IF we were very lucky and no other Fools were able to upthumb this train wreck lower, and even luckier to have it nudge up while the decrepit S&P was going down.

Brain: Well, yes, there was a little luck involved, but I had to step in and help because I knew you would jump in, with or without me.

Ego: Now who has the Ego?? I guess if this puppy spikes up another $2 before caving that you'll need to go shopping for a bigger hat, BIG HEAD!

Brain: Now, now, Ego. Let's not resort to name calling. We'll save the names calling for inflated IPO's. I hear a few more volunteered today to face Fooldom. Poor Angie!

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/19/2011 10:38:08 AM
Recs: 1

That's a good point. Where are those "chicken" downthumbers who put a 1 to 5 year downthumb on this thing and bolted after 7-9 days?? Some had convincing sounding pitches about doomsday for this one and they're already gone.....(or piling back on).

Ooops, I won't be able to talk soon, I didn't mean to put a 5YR on this one, but I often forget to change this metric, but I think my pitch indicated that I wouldn't be hanging around long term, just "shorter" and option pile on time.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/22/2011 10:30:14 AM
Recs: 1

Ahhhhh....should have quite while I was ahead!!!!

Member Avatar GundersonGroup (29.27) Submitted: 11/22/2011 11:54:13 AM
Recs: 2

No, you should have included Pinky in the conversation...

Member Avatar XMFCinco (30.12) Submitted: 12/2/2011 10:54:35 AM
Recs: 0

hahaha only in CAPS

Member Avatar REVO999 (84.22) Submitted: 12/13/2011 4:08:12 PM
Recs: 0


Member Avatar Danyboy7 (< 20) Submitted: 1/22/2012 2:00:45 AM
Recs: 0

Educationally intriguing for the entire family!

Member Avatar TMFBabo (100.00) Submitted: 3/21/2012 11:17:48 PM
Recs: 0

"That's a good point. Where are those "chicken" downthumbers who put a 1 to 5 year downthumb on this thing and bolted after 7-9 days?? Some had convincing sounding pitches about doomsday for this one and they're already gone.....(or piling back on)."

I'd think they're definitely re-upping. I didn't pitch this one myself, but I'm trying to get a limit filled for round 4 if the price will just cooperate a little bit (not a lot - it's not that strict a limit)...

Member Avatar OklaBoston (68.01) Submitted: 3/31/2012 9:09:29 PM
Recs: 0

One reason you'll rarely, if ever, giving an IPO a green thumb until it falls below it's IPO price. Most do, in bull markets or bear,since the IPO price almost always has a large helping of wishful thinking behind it. And brokers more interested in commissions than in learning about actual value

My rating here, BTW, was much higher before I started paying too much attention to earnings, surprises. Since I've gone from that to almost totally ignoring them my rating has been going up slowly but fairly steadily. Maybe the skepticism I've long had about IPOs will help keep it going back up.

Member Avatar naughtyguy (32.93) Submitted: 4/2/2012 2:36:29 PM
Recs: 0

groupon has less offerings in the two areas I eat at as time goes on. The merchants are getting ripped off if you ask me.
There are better ways to advertise without giving away the store

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