Hansen Natural Corp (HANS)

pencils2 (99.67) Submitted: 10/25/06 11:11 AM

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Continuing to raise the business value, having increased the EPS $0.25 over the past two quarters and adding $25 million to the balance sheet (while paying off debt). HANS has some great, experienced leaders behind it that I think will find ways to continue to grow. There are many opportunities, such as acquisitions, that Hansen can pursue. But right now growth is not really an issue, in my opinion, simply because energy drinks are going strong, along with other segments of the company. The business is producing, and I think with this upcoming quarter people will notice it.

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ydnar100 (96.99) Submitted: 11/22/06 5:15 PM

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thanks, pencils2--i'm in

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pencils2 (99.67) Submitted: 11/27/06 12:03 AM

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Well, the market value has kept falling, yet the business value keeps rising. You all have seen what happened when Dell announced their whole options thing was over and they released results, the stock shot up. To meet analysts estimates, Hansen only needs 67% YOY earnings growth, which isn't too much to ask considering that over the past few quarters earnings have gained a higher percentage than revenue, and since this quarter revenue was up 69% YOY, they'll be able to meet estimates. The balance sheet continued to strengthen during the 3Q, revenue's growing great, the only thing holding the stock down is the whole deal with options, which is happening with more than 100 other companies. Apple is in the exact same situation -- announces they are looking into options, gets notice letter from Nasdaq warning of delisting, and even with the options thing not cleared up, Apple's stock is up more than 30%.

Hansen is no longer the darling of Wall Street, I get that, but even with an analyst upgrading the stock on the 13th of November, the stock is still getting hammered.

If they grow earnings at 31% annually from the EPS of .90 (the current EPS as of the 2Q) and are priced at a P/E of 25 in five years, we'd see a share price above $86 in the summer of 2011. I think these are reasonable expectations considering:

A) the A-B deal will get more of Hansen's products into more places. It also opens up international expansion if Hansen does need to expand outside of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico for more growth.

B) people say Monster sales are going to go down, and they will eventually, but it won't be anytime soon. They doubled in the 2Q, did very strong in the 3Q, and they aren't going to slow down right away. Hansen's got smart management, they'll know when to focus on a certain area. Why? They know the beverage industry as well as Coca-Cola or Pepsi, I'd say they know the beverage industry even more than those companies.

C) Hansen has the resources to expand. That $120 million in cash with only $500K in debt will help management take advantage of future and current opportunities. Hansen isn't going anywhere with all that cash.

http://pencils2.com/cgi-bin/blog/view_post/20471

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pencils2 (99.67) Submitted: 12/11/06 8:14 PM

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http://pencils2.com/cgi-bin/blog/view_post/16984

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