Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ:HGSI)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The drug development company with three products advancing into late-stage clinical development: Albuferon(r) for chronic hepatitis C, LymphoStat-B(r) for systemic lupus erythematosus, and ABthraxtm for anthrax disease.

Recs

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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.67) Submitted: 1/23/2012 11:53:53 AM : Underperform Start Price: $9.03 HGSI Score: +9.21

I haven't done very well with Human Genome, missing an enormous potential gain on the success of Benlysta in clinical trials and then getting crushed when I thought the stock was oversold after approval. Lets see if I have better luck this time. In 12/11 the stock bottomed at 6.64, which is about where I gave up on my green thumb, and has subsequently risen back to the 9 level.

The rise in share price seems to be predicated on optimistic language from management as well as takeover speculation. However, we already know that the net Benlysta revenue for Q4 will be about 26M, which isn't much of a jump from 7.8M and 18.8M in the preceding quarters. It certainly won't be enough to make much of a dent in the company's huge quarterly losses. A recent 500M debt financing indicates that the company may be digging in for a prolonged period of negative cash flow.

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