Hello, Fool! | Login | Signup | My Fool
Oct 12, 2008 10:37 PM ET | Feedback | Site Changes | Help
The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles and Financial Services.
View All Commentary (HOG)
Recs
nemaline (97.87) Submitted: 5/20/08 2:31 PM : Start Price: $39.18 HOG Score: 12.69
Easy to understand company that has made a mint off of the only real brand in motorcycling. With the multiples this puppy is selling for, the margin of safety is there. Although it may continue to turn down with the economy, the price of gas aint getting any cheaper, which may allow the company to sell a few more its relatively gas efficient bikes. And, pssttt...some smart value investors are buying up this. This is probably because we haven't seen these sorts of prices since 2002-2003, and the earnings are 1.5 times what they were at that time. Add on increasing book value per share, sales per share, continued (but declining) strong ROE and ROIC, and I think we have a strong value buy. Oh, and I forgot to mention this one has a 3.4% dividend yield that continues to increase over time. Buy this one on the way down.
Report this Post Replies: 4 | Reply
Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out.
usmilitiadude (98.90) Submitted: 6/11/08 4:28 PM
Recs: 0 | Rec This
Warning! I'm a novice with stocks. I noticed that HOG's inventory has gone up the last three years in the balance sheet. This may show future weakness. Also, their future P/E ratio is higher than past P/E. Inflation is coming and not as many people will afford a $15,000 to $25,000 motorcyle.
Report this Post Reply
nemaline (97.87) Submitted: 6/18/08 3:22 PM
Agreed. PROJECTED P/E is higher, true. And inflation of cost of parts is a consideration. However, one maxim that tends to influence the price of any security is that investors tend to believe that what has happened in the recent past will continue to happen. As the economy recovers, and growth continues, this brand will continue to be purchased by HD fanatics, and value in the stock price will be actualized. This may require some management changes or adjustments of cost savings, production cutbacks, et. al., but the brand is still strong. We just need a catalyst.
bbsauve (< 20) Submitted: 6/20/08 3:13 PM
It looks like everything is on the way down today. Another Black Friday? I'll wait until Monday to see if HOG has gone down anymore. I live in the Daytona Beach area and all the bikers want is a Harley. One exit off of 95 is a whole little city devoted to bikers. In these days of $4 a gallon for gas, it makes sense to buy a Harley rather than a second car. And, Harley is the choice when it comes to buying a bike. I'm not a biker, I just know what I hear on the street.
nemaline (97.87) Submitted: 9/25/08 2:12 PM
Yeah, bbsauve, but HOG has been resilient. It's essentially at the same price as I bought it, despite the market's thorough drubbing. I think that when we recover and rebound, HOG will take off.
Terms & Conditions
RSS Headlines
Fool UK