Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 3/26/2013 4:27:20 AM : Underperform Start Price: $12.70 HRTX Score: +45.16

I've watched from the sidelines as AP Pharma stock ran and sagged ahead of the APF530 PDUFA, likely the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy of the "run-up" enthusiasts. As always, it is good to be an early adopter of manufactured momentum plays in low float stocks and painful to be late to the party. Getting back to fundamentals, I see AP as a prime candidate for a post-PDUFA decline regardless of outcome. In my mind, the company's goose was cooked when results of the phase III trial indicated that APF530 was equivalent but not superior to the standard of care Aloxi. The smart money abandoned the stock and the next few years were a blur of CRL, time and resource-consuming studies, and dilution. The penny stock share price masks a startling 193M market cap, the result of a massive dilution last July that suggests the company is already looking ahead to their next act after APF530. Even if approved, APF530 is unlikely to become a significant player in the generic-dominated CINV market.

Member Avatar xtac971 (< 20) Submitted: 3/26/2013 5:47:22 AM
Recs: 0

I would have to disagree. You have to remember that Aloxi is IV delivered. Cancer patients will prefer to have a quick injection that cuts wait time significantly and eliminated in patient stays. in addition APF530 will be the ONLY drug approved for delayed CNIV Highly Emetogenic. Also the purpose of the study was show that APF530 is not inferior and on many indications of chemo we are statically better. I will go back to my first comment. If APF530 can provide decreased healthcare costs, eliminate in patient stays, decrease patient wait time significantly and be just as effective than APF530 will be the choice of most.

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