Horizon Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:HZNP)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

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Player Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 3/20/2014 3:38:32 PM : Underperform Start Price: $17.36 HZNP Score: +12.70

Fortunately I caught Horizon Pharma, Inc at the top of the spike yesterday, so I have a little room for the next few day oscillation as shorts/traders play it. Apparently analysts see the purchase of Dublin-based Vidara Therapeutics in a deal worth $660 million as more accreditive than I would have considered it looking at both of their companies and pipelines. In some regards it looked like a tax move to Ireland as much as a four leaf clover. Vidara's Actimmune it acquired from InterMune looked like a weak addtion and it's own sales of Duexis put it well in negative cash flow for the foreseable future. Net negative Book value, net negative cash flow, 33% short positions need to cover.

Analysts and current stockholders are forcasting a 2014 break even on EBITA. Breakeven creates heady stock prices. I think they are overly optimistic, but will close this when the dust settles if it works it's way into a 7-10% decrease.

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