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$40.53 1.30 (3.31%)
7/8/2008 4:00 PM

ImClone Systems, Inc. (IMCL)

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A biopharmaceutical company which advances oncology care by developing and commercializing a portfolio of targeted biologic treatments designed to address the medical needs of patients with a variety of cancers.

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Avatar wundermichl (36.96) Submitted: 5/13/08 12:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $43.03 IMCL Score: 3.44

Cetuximab (Erbitux) will most likely be approved for treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. The recent downgrade by a Morgan Stanley analyst was probably derived from speculation and not actual data of the FLEX study. Extrapolating data from the primary literature published over the past years I expect the benefits of implementing Erbitux in lung, colorectal, and probably head-and-neck carcinoma to be signifcant.

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Avatar wundermichl (36.96) Submitted: 5/16/08 5:19 PM

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Bull and Bear for the Weekend:

"PiperJaffray's Caroline Y. Stewart noted that Avastin does appear safe in lung cancer patients with brain tumors, a population for which the drug currently isn't prescribed. But Stewart still thinks that even with this data, only one-third of patients will be eligible to receive Avastin and believes Erbitux has significant opportunity to gain market share among other Avastin-ineligible patients."

"Citi Investment Research analyst Yaron Werber anticipates positive data at ASCO showing that Imclone Systems Inc.'s Erbitux is highly active in tumors with the KRAS wild type gene, which could drive usage in 2nd-line colon cancer over time, a larger and more lucrative market than use as a third-line treatment."
*** Note: >50% (as many as 65%?) of all CRCs are k-RAS wildtype!

"But JPMorgan's Matthew Roden said he's skeptical on Imclone going into ASCO, given "lofty expectations for the FLEX trial of Erbitux in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer, and KRAS data that is academically intriguing, but probably not commercially viable."
*** I think Mr. Roden owes us an explanation for his statement, which appears to be based on a gut feeling rather than on a complete thought process. The k-RAS data has strong real-life implications, and, as I said above, with >50% of CRCs being wildtype, the Erbitux elligible patient group will be as large, if not larger, than the group where Erbitux is less effective.

(Quotes are from http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/sector_wrap_asco_large_biotechs.html?.v=1)

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