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Take the performance of NBG, not to mention American banks that took TARP funds: they have declined slowly but surely since the peak of disaster and then clearly will survive, but the price will drift downward overtime. It has a slightly better chance of survival than AIB, but not by much.
This isn't really accurate as we were informed that AIB would be nationalised by over 90% several months ago - it is worth around 300 million euro and needs to raise around 10 billion! IRE is worth around 2 billion euro and needs to raise 1.3 billion euro. They are miles apart. AIB is due to be delisted from the main stock exchange on Jan 25th, while IRE is unlikely to have a higher government ownership than 45% after the recapitalisation.
You are exactly right irishstock. AIB shareholders will be nearly entirely diluted while the potential downside is very small at this level for IRE. IRE will remain the only majority privately owned bank in Ireland so it will rule the roost to take the words directly from a recent Reuters article.