InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITMN)

zzlangerhans (99.67) Submitted: 11/29/2011 11:21:22 PM : Start Price: $17.75 ITMN Score: -50.64

It's been a long way down from the highs over 50 seen earlier this year in the giddy buying spree after pirefenidone's surprise European approval. I scored once on skepticism about the lofty valuation but abandoned the pick too early. I think the share price may now have declined excessively after the company reported only 0.1M in pirfenidone revenues last quarter. After all, the drug was only launched in Germany, and not until the very end of the quarter.

I still think it is very possible that pirfenidone will be a commercial disappointment in Europe, as pulmonologists choose to await the results of the ASCEND trial which will not even complete enrollment until H1 2012. 2012 will also bring launches in France, Spain, Italy, and eventually the UK. I'm making a CAPS only bet that the share price will rise above this level in advance of ASCEND results, which I think are a 50/50 toss-up. Way too much uncertainty and risk here for a real life investment.