Invesco Mortgage Capital (NYSE:IVR)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

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4
Player Avatar georcole (40.29) Submitted: 9/8/2011 11:10:56 AM : Outperform Start Price: $14.03 IVR Score: +9.39

They just dumped 20M shares on the market. It is my belief that that had a lot to do with the recent decline above and beyond the market itself. I am not doing this as a long term pick. I am hoping that the price stays good relative to the market. When they announce the next dividend and CAPS factors that in, hopefully I will be up over five points and can close this with a positive accuracy pick.

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Member Avatar colddrink73 (89.59) Submitted: 9/9/2011 10:38:15 AM
Recs: 0

George,

I think in a sideways moving market like we appear to be in at least for the short term REITs and high yield dividend stocks are the way to go. So do you know how CAPS factors in the timing of a dividend?

"The Board of Directors of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (NYSE: IVR) declared a dividend of $0.80 per share for the third quarter of 2011. The dividend will be paid on October 27, 2011 to shareholders of record on September 19, 2011."

Do you get this dividend on Oct 27th? Or do you get it on September 19th? Do you have to buy before the 19th and then hold until Oct 27th? Please let me know because it could be a nice way to play if you only have to have it on the distribution dats not the date of record.

I know in real life you can pick it up on Friday the 16th and dump it on Tuesday the 20th and then when October 27th rolls around you get a dividend in your account. If prices for this stock stay where thay are and the market stays flat this play will give you 4.8% off of the dividend play. I actually think you will have no problem getting your 5% but I think this one may supprise you with something closer to 10% if you can close at the right time.

However, traditionaly I do not like REITs

Good Luck,
gw

Member Avatar georcole (40.29) Submitted: 9/9/2011 6:23:23 PM
Recs: 0

Greg,

CAPS is the same as real life in that you have to hold it on the day of record, not the day of distribution. So in your example, you could pick it up anywhere from Tuesday the 13th through Friday the 16th and dump it anywhere from Tuesday the 20th through Friday the 23rd due to having a seven day holding period, and get credit for the dividend on the 19th. I believe the default setting in CAPS is to get an alert when a company you have pays out a dividend. That is how I get my heads up that I am going to be paid a dividend soon. When I get it in CAPS, I know I will soon get it in real life. So I will be on the lookout for it so I can keep track of how many shares I get from the dividend reinvestment. I can always go on the BP website to see in the financial calendar when it will be paid out. When the well blew up, CAPS had originally given us the credit for the dividend. When they called off the dividend, the day before it was going to be paid, CAPS had to take that credit away. That hurt my feelings. That was the only time CAPS raised the starting price of a stock on me. If you do not get those alerts, go to your CAPS page, click on the "Profile" tab (between "Quick Stats" and Favorites") Then click on the "Change Your CAPS Preferences" link. Then check the appropriate check boxes based on the alert(s) that you wish to receive.

I admit to not looking very hard, but I did not see an exact date with this one when I went to the company website. I just saw that it should be declared within a week or two, saw the size of the usual payout and decided that I only have to be a little right to get that 5% needed for accuracy. I have to hold it for a week anyways, so I figured I would start right away. I already have two REITs in my CAPS portfolio, and since the fed said that they were not going to touch interest rates until at least 2013, I feel pretty confident that the market is "safe" for this kind of market timing gamble. If the stock market starts a bull run over the next couple of weeks, the REITs will not perform well. But as long as it stays crazy like it has for the last couple of months, I should be fine. These are the small gambles I feel comfortable taking. I cannot take the mass gambles like you are taking. Although, unless we become Japan, you are not really gambling. I do have CNW simply because I love Conway Twitty. But I figured that for a negative accuracy from the beginning. Now that I am out of work for two months or so with a broken wrist (motorcycle accident), I will have more time and maybe take a small page out of your book. But I don't want to steal your thunder. How does being in the top 1.5% feel?!

Can you smell 99th percentile?? Good luck.
George

Member Avatar JPAKolypse86 (< 20) Submitted: 9/19/2011 1:28:49 PM
Recs: 0

I like invesco even better at this price, and apparently invesco's insiders do as well. If only you could scale in your buying on CAPS.

Member Avatar georcole (40.29) Submitted: 9/19/2011 8:19:18 PM
Recs: 0

@JPAKolypse86,

For CAPS purposes, you are effectively only buying, or shorting, one share. I have read from quite a few others, and I wholeheartedly agree, that it would be nice if CAPS allowed you to double down. The problem with that is, if you double down on a green thumb, and the stock falls still further, you might want another share, then another. Do they allow us to use all 200 picks on one stock if we so desire? Something like that would totally change how the game is played, and meant to be played. Everything that I can think of is either potentially very easy to "game" the system, or effectively negates the whole idea of doubling down. I do not know what the answer is, but if MF can figure it out, I'm sure there would be quite a few happy Fools on CAPS.

Happy picking,
George

Member Avatar georcole (40.29) Submitted: 10/11/2011 11:01:13 PM
Recs: 0

Apparently my plan did not come together very well. I will hold out for a while and see if I can wait long enough for it to turn positive. Hopefully it turns positive!!

Member Avatar colddrink73 (89.59) Submitted: 10/13/2011 9:50:25 PM
Recs: 1

Broken wrist, damn I'm so sorry man. Since you said 2 months does that mean you are almost back up and around now? Have you had any time to watch the leaves turn? I'm stuck in upstate New York this week and it seems to be a big thing here.
And HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!

g

Member Avatar georcole (40.29) Submitted: 10/17/2011 6:24:49 AM
Recs: 0

Greg,

Yes, I am up and around. I am due to go back to work just after Thanksgiving.

I am currently in WV visiting my family for my maternal Grandfather's 80th birthday.

I did manage to do some hiking last week before I came down here. The leaves were in decent shape there in upstate NY when I did that hiking. Around this area of the country it is a pretty popular way to spend a day or weekend, driving around to look at the leaves. My Mom goes to Vermont pretty much every fall. She said that it wasn't as good this year. Apparently Hurricanes Irene and Lee did a fair bit of damage up there. Where in NY are/were you? Everything north of New York City is considered upstate, so that phrase doesn't narrow it down much. Is it a personal trip or business?

Thank you for the birthday wishes. HAPPY belated BIRTHDAY!!!! I hope you got to spend it with your family before setting out to NY if it was a business trip.

George

Member Avatar colddrink73 (89.59) Submitted: 10/18/2011 11:12:12 AM
Recs: 1

I was in a town called Bath about 2 hours SE of Buffalo. I was up there for about a week for buisness we put in some work for a facility. Thanks, I did get to spend my Birthday with family but our youngest daughter turned 12 while I was on the trip. I got to see her on Sunday for a few hours but she stays with her dad every other week so she missed my Bday and I missed hers. I watched her open presents on Skype but it is not quite the same.

Have fun in WV.

g

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