Player Avatar TMFTheDoctor (74.13) Submitted: 11/7/2011 3:42:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.28 JEF.DL Score: +20.34

I've seen this movie before with Aflac in the beginning of 2009. JEF is a market maker, the worries about its Eurozone exposure are completely overblown.

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Member Avatar hot1053 (36.88) Submitted: 11/23/2011 6:28:38 PM
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The problem with that analysis is this is 2011 and things are much worse now. MF Global is a more likely turn out with JEF than Aflac. Loan money and bailout money is not as liquid now as it was in 2009 or financials. I may short JEF in real life as early as the next trading day depending on what news comes out between then and now.

Member Avatar TMFTheDoctor (74.13) Submitted: 12/6/2011 3:05:38 PM
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Almost all of their long exposure is offset, they have essentially no meaningful exposure to most of the periphery countries, and in some cases are net short (but also not meaningfully). Unless they are just lying about their exposure (which would put them in the MF Global scenario for sure), then its much more likely they're being punished the way Aflac was, with analysts grossly overestimating exposure levels. The only issue would be is if its short book is too illiquid to practically serve as a hedge when needed, which I'll grant may be possible.

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