$60.30
0.32 (+0.53%)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
CAPS Rating:
Engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world.
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Believe that republicians will regain control of the white house and congress, making the economy even tighter, which should reduce the sizes of households, JNJ services mostly households, causing a drop.
That first sentence certainly kills your argument...
How can the size of a household be reduced? Divorce? Returning the first born? Cannibalism?
Doesn't a tight economy tend to increase household size while decreasing the number of households? Presumably as more people lose jobs and homes, more people rent, take in roommates, or live with family members (grown children, older parents). If each household needs one box of Band-Aids or one bottle of tile cleaner regardless of the number of people in the household, this would then hurt J&J's sales. So far so good. However, this investment thesis requires that you correctly predict 1) a political event 2) its economic consequences 3) demographic changes arising from those consequences 4) the effects of these on J&J's business. I have low consequence in my ability (and, with respect, yours) to predict these things with consistent accuracy.