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$33.24 1.56 (4.92%)
10/13/2008 9:57 AM

The St. Joe Company (JOE)

CAPS Rating:
*

A real estate development company which is engaged in town and resort development and operations, commercial and industrial development and rural land sales.

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Recs

13

Avatar TDRH (99.99) Submitted: 3/21/08 8:51 AM : Underperform Start Price: $28.48 JOE Score: -59.62

This company has been a thorn in my side since I picked it down. I copied this from their websitee:
"The best part of Florida. Imagine over 700,000 exceptional acres owned by one company – St. Joe."
700,000 acres, in a depressed real estate market that could see an additional 15% downturn-might as well be swampland till 2010. A P/E ratio of 82 and the stock keeps rising? This one is due for a correction imho to the low 20's.

I have not seen floridabuilder go into this one with any detail, but his thumb is still down and bleeding as well, so I am in good company.

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Avatar jack21222 (99.66) Submitted: 4/26/08 9:37 PM

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I agree wholeheartedly. Luckily, I discovered the stock after hit had run up even further, so I'm still in the green on this pick, if barely.

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Avatar andfaraway (69.11) Submitted: 5/01/08 11:32 AM

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I have to agree, even at it's peak it was still cheap land, but there comes a point where it is better to cut and run, - at least until the demographics change... meanwhile there are other stocks to follow...

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Avatar FleaBagger (66.77) Submitted: 5/05/08 1:11 PM

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You do better in CAPS to reload your big losers (both outperforms and underperforms) if they are about to swing the other way. The only way it is worse to reload is if they're going to keep losing (in which case it would be better to end it for a while anyway).

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Avatar FleaBagger (66.77) Submitted: 5/05/08 1:12 PM

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I say that because you obviously need help with your player rating.

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Avatar TDRH (99.99) Submitted: 5/05/08 9:58 PM

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Fleabagger,
My timing generally stinks. If I am buying wait two weeks and you will look brilliant. If I am shorting, wait a four months and you will make me look like an idiot. I am bleeding on two fronts, but in my mind the maximum blood is already in the streets.

*Homebuilders short: Irrational exhuburance should end shortly. With foreclosures, inflation, tighter lending standards, high consumer debt, and probably most importantly high housing prices relative to the median household income, we should begin to see a shift in the demand for housing. Creditors want skin in the game to offset risk, jingle mail will become more and more prevalent in bubble areas, it is going to get ugly, I just went to the well too many times and have paid the price.

Refiners: Again, went to the well too many times, but US refining capacity is limited, and barriers to entry are enormous. I was expecting the invisible hand to broaden the crack spread, I was wrong. At the same time, this has got to be as bad as it gets. I will keep them open, have little fear of the S&P 500 growth compounding my losses.

The one recent exception I had was COH. After checking with GTRInvestor I decided to throw in the towell in CAPS and in my personal account for a small loss. I must have been overly confident when I made that pick. Preventing overconfidence is another reason to keep the losers around, not like I need them to offset capital gains in CAPs.

Good luck in your investing,

James

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