Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on the acquisition, development and commercialization of medically important, novel pharmaceutical products for the treatment of life-threatening diseases, including diabetes and cancer.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 12/3/2012 5:42:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.08 KERX Score: +165.67

Keryx got away from me. I saw the share price declining in November and set an outperform threshold of 2, figuring the stock would run ahead of phase III data for Zerenex before the end of 2012. Problem was, the share price never got there. It hit about 2.3 then started rolling back upward after the company affirmed the timing of topline data in their conference call in early November.

Not long ago, I would have written this one off and waited for the red thumb when the stock peaked after positive topline data. I don't like to jump into the middle of a run because it's a constant reminder of how I missed the bottom. But I think being obsessive-compulsive is causing me to miss a lot of momentum trades so I'm experimenting with being a late arrival.

I think there's a good chance that the phase III trial will show positive results, given the efficacy of Zerenex in previous late stage trials. I'm far from convinced that Zerenex will make a commercial impact despite the grandiose claims of Seeking Alpha cheeseballs, so I'm looking forward to riding this stub back downward if the green thumb plays out the way I hope.

Report this Post 9 Replies
Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 12/19/2012 11:43:08 AM
Recs: 1

Keryx dropped through my buy threshold so I bought 5000 shares today at 2.78 for the GBMB. Good chance at a pop with phase III data after the run-down from 3.14. Will probably sell same day if it pops.

Member Avatar LifeScientist (43.10) Submitted: 12/26/2012 11:42:55 AM
Recs: 0

I think it might be going back to its 60 day low of $2.31 before it pops into upcoming data. It's a crapshoot as to where and when these small biotechs will get attention before the P III's. If you are an investor with stops losses at 8-10% or so; tough call as where to entry. So I wait to see if it goes to $2.31 like apparently the consensus is waiting.,, Price is truth or in this case, lack of known truths.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/15/2013 12:51:01 PM
Recs: 1

Sold all 5000 shares today at 2.94 for a GBMB profit of $850. Not the outcome I hoped for, but sick of hanging around for late data from a company with a really bad track record of crushing investors. CEO says data is in hands of CRO, he can't say when it's coming out. Then why did you say multiple times it was coming out before end of 2012?

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.66) Submitted: 1/28/2013 8:04:31 AM
Recs: 0

don't look.

Member Avatar Momentum21 (44.33) Submitted: 1/28/2013 12:25:43 PM
Recs: 0

I got spooked out as well. Listening to the skeptics (Adam F) gives one high accuracy and low return. There is a reason he is a journalist and not working for a fund. ; )

Some dude just gave it a $15 PT...

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/28/2013 2:03:46 PM
Recs: 0

Maybe you should start listening to "some dude" instead. AF said he thought the trial results would be positive, but the sales performance would disappoint. He doesn't try to predict irrational short-term stock moves like this one. I have no regrets about taking my paltry gains on Keryx, and would do the same again if data is inexplicably delayed on a major binary catalyst.

Member Avatar Momentum21 (44.33) Submitted: 1/28/2013 2:08:25 PM
Recs: 0

it was sarcasm tony...I like taking shots at your idol. I sold last week as well. Can't say I don't regret it but there is no way I would be holding here at 6.61 anyhow. You know I am right about AF though... : )

Member Avatar Momentum21 (44.33) Submitted: 1/28/2013 2:09:14 PM
Recs: 0

have you been following RPTP lately?

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/29/2013 8:41:09 AM
Recs: 1

I'm sort of following Raptor. I'd say 60% chance full approval, 20% chance soft rejection, 20% chance request for more trials. The problem is a lack of confidence that DR Cysteamine will displace Cystagon, or concerns that pricing will be forced low enough to kill margins. Maybe the stock already peaked at 6.5, or maybe it will catch a second wind before the delayed PDUFA. Seems evenly poised at the current price to me.

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