Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on the acquisition, development and commercialization of medically important, novel pharmaceutical products for the treatment of life-threatening diseases, including diabetes and cancer.

Recs

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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 1/30/2013 11:45:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $9.65 KERX Score: +30.17

Ow! I had some optimistic feelings about the Zerenex phase III and bought 5000 shares at 2.77 before the end of 2012. I started getting nervous when the data didn't come out as promised before the end of the year, and I sold for a small profit about halfway through January. I thought at most I'd be missing out on a 2 point bump. Now I'm looking at about $33000 of missed potential gains after a massive market overreaction to somewhat predictable positive results of the trial.

Zerenex will almost certainly get first pass FDA approval. The issue with the drug is commercial potential and ability to compete against established phosphate chelators that happen to be going generic. Keryx bulls point to a dual benefit of iron supplementation, and the might have a valid point. However, a market cap close to 700M simply isn't justified without clearer indications that Zerenex will take significant market share. It's not surprising that Keryx raced to take advantage of the continuing speculative buble in the stock with a large below-market financing.

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