Quicksilver GAS (KGS)

factoids (82.60) Submitted: 10/31/07 12:01 AM : Start Price: $23.80 KGS Score: 8.97

I have two sets of analyst forecasts for KGS - and those forecasts are atypical in that the brokerages forecasting the highest distribution growth is forecasting the lowest distributable cash flow growth. But the bottom line is that both forecasts contain good news. I take these numbers and do my own forecast of my projection for the units price of KGS in 12 months and in 24 months.

From UBS:
UBS Net Distributions/unit 2007 - $1.20 2008 - $1.45 2009 - $1.85
AGE Net Distributions/unit 2007 - $1.20 2008 - $1.29 2009 - $1.44

UBS Net Distributable Cash Flow/unit 2008 - $1.93 2009 - $2.44
AGE Net Distributable Cash Flow/unit 2008 - $1.94 2009 - $2.63

From UBS: KGS possesses several fundamental strengths, which should support distribution growth of 20-30% and distribution coverage protection of 1.2x-1.3x for KGS for the next several years (excluding acquisitions).

My guesstimate of what UBS' $1.45 distribution would be per quarter [32 + 34 + 38 + 41]
My guesstimate of what UBS' $1.85 distribution would be per quarter [42 + 45 + 47 + 51]


From AG Edwards: In 2008 - We forecast distributable cash flow of $1.94 per unit with total unit cash distributions totaling $1.29 per unit (first quarter: $0.3000; second quarter: $0.3150; third quarter: $0.3300; fourth quarter: $0.3450) with an ending annualized cash distribution of $1.38.
In 2009 - We forecast distributable cash flow of $2.63 per unit with total unit cash distributions totaling $1.44 per unit (first quarter: $0.3450; second quarter: $0.3550; third quarter: $0.3650; fourth quarter: $0.3750) with an ending annualized cash distribution of $1.50.

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