Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)

fewl10 (71.82) Submitted: 10/20/07 8:27 AM : Start Price: $39.64 MAR Score: 5.48

The hotelling industry is going to undergo some very serious changes over the next 5-10 years. I think in the long run this stock is a dog for two main reasons-- and both relate to the industry as a whole, not this company, which is actually very well run (although I should note that even the directors of this company have been dumping shares).





1. There is a GLOBAL oil shortage coming our way. If you don't own oil-related stocks now, you better load up on them soon. I really do believe we'll run out of oil eventually. This will really crimp consumer spending (since oil is an inflexible good), and people won't have the money to pay for hotels, except MAYBE during vacations. But my family always camped or stayed with relatives.





2. Communication technology is getting better every year. As OLED flat panel flexible displays and fiber optics become more widespread, business travel will decrease so companies can cut costs. Business travel is the bread and butter of the hotel industry, but soon, only the government will still be stupid enough to pay for it with such great technologies available.





Finally, let me mention that profit margins in hotelling really aren't that great, especially with the sub-prime meltdown going on. Real estate gains (and losses) affect the hotelling industry too. And for those of you claiming a falling dollar will help Marriott, I ask you "how?" If the dollar falls (I should say as it continues its downward spiral), American companies will have to raise prices.

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