MBIA, Inc. (MBI)

TMFWBuffettJr (99.90) Submitted: 12/13/07 12:24 PM

Recs: 1 | Rec This

This is the Enron of our day. I wish CAPS would let me own puts rather than short the stock. I'd make a bajillion points when this piece collapses.

Report this Post Reply

staffier (< 20) Submitted: 8/27/08 11:37 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

Wow, what terrible analysis. Last I recall, Enron was actually guilty of something...MBIA, on the other hand, simply plummeted because of irrational fear and disingenuous analysis such as yours. The adjusted book value on this one is still around $40/share...do you actually believe it's headed for zero??

Report this Post Reply

TMFWBuffettJr (99.90) Submitted: 9/17/08 6:15 PM

Recs: 1 | Rec This

Right. Irrational fear. I might suggest you look at the trade before you comment on it. I shorted this company all the way back in June of 2007 at $65 per share. Was that because of irrational fear?

Yes, this company is headed for zero. I'll take my irrational fear and terrible analysis any day...it seems to be working thus far ;)

PS The stock is trading at $11 as I write this. Let's see how we do going forward, shall we?

Report this Post Reply

staffier (< 20) Submitted: 9/19/08 3:45 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

Sorry buddy, it's just plain disingenuous to call MBIA the "Enron of our day" -- now, or even back in 2007. If you truly believe that, I have some magical beans to sell you...

Certainly it would be foolish to argue that shorting MBIA when you did was a mistake. But stock prices plummet for lots of reasons, not all of which are rational. Has deterioration in subprime mortgage credit quality hurt MBIA? Sure it has. But the fact remains that MBIA has sufficient capital to pay future claims even under extremely high loss scenarios.

The shares have been over-sold BIG time, mostly because people like Bill Ackman have falsely accused MBIA of being insolvent, and sadly, people believe them. Not to mention the ratings agencies have been making up rules as they go along, changing their stress-case loss estimates with the greatest of ease, and arbitrarily downgrading MBIA's debt based on God-knows-what. Oh yeah, and then there's Buffett blabbing about MBIA & Ambac not possibly deserving AAA ratings because their stock prices have fallen so much -- as if that is even relevant to their ability to pay claims! (OR do you find none of this "irrational"??)

I think you get my point...

Report this Post Reply

TMFWBuffettJr (99.90) Submitted: 10/10/08 9:20 AM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

That's not what Buffett was saying. I think you know that.

Report this Post Reply