$61.38
-0.59 (-0.95%)
McDonald's Corp (MCD)
CAPS Rating:
The Company franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants in the food service industry. These restaurants serve a varied, yet limited, value-priced menu in a number of countries around the world.
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A litle ahead of itself...
I've been watching your picks with great interest and called this one red last week. Feel pretty proud that the great DWOT is on the same page. Good luck.
It doesn't take a genius to short this market. That's the coward way out. Let's see someone pick stocks that increase in value and i don't mean picking double short financial funds either (pathetic) Haven't seen one "great" pick on here yet.
I thought that way myself but frankly, I'd rather be a coward making money than a brave investor losing his shirt... discretion being the better part of valor and all that. Whether calling long or short, there is some skill involved. I suspect nearly all the long calls that investors make these days will prove to be good investments over a longer time horizon, they just won't appear that way in CAPs for a while. And for those older investors who don't have the time to see their picks validated over the long haul, does it make sense to select a great stock today, a deep value bargain, only to watch another significant portion of your powder potentially evaporate over the weeks or months to come? Let's come back and compare scores in another year and see which approach made the most sense.
This guy is amazing. This is why Joe Average doesn't need to be in the market. If you are more loyal to taking long positions during market crashes than making money in them, start collecting baseball cards and get the hell out of the market.
You do well on picks but on MCD I disagree. Economics favor lower end food, shopping, and entertainment. Brand name and market identity are big pluses for it. May be some flux but it should remain growth over short term.
"It doesn't take a genius to short this market. That's the coward way out. Let's see someone pick stocks that increase in value and i don't mean picking double short financial funds either (pathetic) Haven't seen one "great" pick on here yet."I guess that might be true of the short and ultra short ETFs (although with all the volatility even that might not be true). With regular stocks, though, saying they'll underperform is just as hard as saying they'll outperform. Note that one's points are determined by outperformance/underperformance of the market. If the S&P goes down 10% and the stock I'm shorting goes down 8%, this has a negative impact on my score even though I'm correct about the stock's direction.
I agree with this. Gaining points on caps should be about valuation. The whole point is to beat the market and you can still do that with long positions as long as they don't decrease in value as fast as the S&P. However, I agree with shorting the market for the next few quarters away from caps. The reasoning is that even though stocks will sky rocket in the long term, people hate losing their shirts in the short term and will continue to pull out. I also don't believe that not many people pulled out when they could have over the crash. Therefore, there isn't as much capital to throw in at the bottom to pull us out of the slump.One thing the leader doesn't consider is the P.E.G. ratio, which i think is important.
no wonder hes an enemyofreality
Well, I've personally tried to pick up a few good values in my real portfolio, but the market is still trying to test the bottom, and it's not clear we've hit it, yet. Financials rallied today on CIT's news, Bush's speech and general bargain hunting, but I think this rally, like all others we've seen recently, will be short-lived. My bearish CAPS score got killed late day today due to rallies (98+ down to 76+), but I'm still a bear. I don't think we're going to see any real momentum for some time, especially not until 2009 and we have a new economic agenda, so the markets can move to capitalize on it. Right now, with a transition coming up and a rough holiday retail season tied into a credit crunch and rising unemployment, I can't see the bottom.
MCD's management is smarter-than-the-average-bear, and MCD is going to weather the current down market just fine, and people are going to keep buying their happy meals.
I count 15 longs that returned over 24%. They're all in dwot's active portfolio.
Interesting, I was thinking my grandkids could do better than 20 in caps.
bring your grandchildren on. We can take them.
As a poor college student, I have become a fan of the 1$ Double Cheeseburger. MMMmmm
My guess would be that thumbing down McD is being bullish on the market as a whole, I did the same when I sensed the S&P was rallying, (without peaking at DOWT's paper). MCD is a great stock, but the odds it will beat the S&P in a bull market are slim in my opinion. Great stock, good recession proof stock, yes. History shows small cap stocks, those most beaten down spring out first. Of course if we stay in a recession then McD should beat the S&P on a downward trend, but if we're bullish about the S&P then that's one tough, but valid call. As far as styles on shorts, ETF's, etc, vs long plays. This is a game here. The variety here on CAPS is tremendeous. Looking at what the leaders are doing should be reflection. Invest the way you like....be open to exploring....pick the tools you like, ask questions of those doing something different if you want to learn, but criticising pick styles.....comon..... One World, (and getting smaller).
Agreed. MickeyD's rancid mayonaise might not be as alluring in the downturn as many assume. Consumers probably have more choices than investors. A sheepish thumbs up pick.
Good way to put it: Sheepish. I don't think pointing a solid company like Micky's down relying on a strengthening s&p is a strong play. No matter what the fundamentals show (I have not done my homework), people see Micky's as a strong blue chip company. I'm asking my self why MCD would underperform the s&p and if it did, by how much? Seems a gamble to short it... This is my opinion. Now, this opinion could be said similarly for the bullish position, which makes me moderate on the matter.
It's still to expensive. The stock, not the food-which stinks.