Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDVN)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company engaged in the acquisition, research and development of promising medical technologies.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 8/25/2011 12:28:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.45 MDVN Score: +1,287.82

Hopefully Dimebon has now provided enough failures to reduce its contribution to Medivation's enterprise value to zero. The new central story is the promising prostate cancer drug MDV3100 . In June the company reported preliminary data from an MD Anderson study of MDV3100 showing that 45% of 55 advanced prostate ca patients experienced at least a 50% decrease in PSA levels. An interim analysis of the AFFIRM phase III placebo controlled trial of MDV3100 in castration-resistant prostate cancer may be performed before the end of the year. The share price hasn't seen 15 since February, when encouraging data for MDV3100 first started to get noticed.

Report this Post 14 Replies
Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/3/2011 9:18:42 AM
Recs: 2

Good call!!! ;)

Member Avatar SorrySam (75.17) Submitted: 2/4/2012 1:38:54 AM
Recs: 0

Medivation is my best CAPS pick ever but didn't follow through with real money. I am thinking of just ending this pick so that I am not reminded of the lost 500% gains that I could have made with real money :(

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 2/4/2012 7:24:55 PM
Recs: 1

Leave it open to be reminded of the 1000% gains you could have made with real money.

Member Avatar SorrySam (75.17) Submitted: 4/5/2012 5:19:22 AM
Recs: 0

I would be happy to go long now and it reaches $100/share from today's $80/share. Come on....somebody make a flash crash on mdvn so that I can buy their shares

Member Avatar APJ4RealHoldings (35.02) Submitted: 7/24/2012 5:24:42 PM
Recs: 0

zz, do you still beleive in this stock at this price level (mid 90s)?? I've actually just made a short play on this and wanted to hear your thoughts.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 7/26/2012 10:59:04 AM
Recs: 2

Why on Earth would you short this now just after the FDA accepted the enzalutamide NDA for priority review? Can you find me any legitimate analyst who doesn't think the drug is effective or that the FDA won't approve it? The only question is whether the long-term commercial potential is worth the market cap, but the time to short it on that basis would be after it runs up and pops on approval, not now.

There are plenty of weak, lame biopharmas running on farts and sunshine that are better short candidates. Try Infinity, Omeros, Synthetic Biologics, Xenoport, and Medgenics just for starters.

Member Avatar APJ4RealHoldings (35.02) Submitted: 7/27/2012 4:01:22 PM
Recs: 0

ZZ, thanks for your reply/thoughts.
OK, so I've noticed two redthumbs, Onyx (ONXX) & Pacera (PCRX) open, which appear to be good short candidates to me. I was about to switch my short from MDVN to ONXX, however I noticed the recent FDA approval (and trial fail on a sep drug) for I ask, in light of this recent FDA approval for ONXX, does it change your stance on the direction of this stock at current levels? As you can tell I'm biased in shorting larger capped high flyers.

The candidates Infinity, Omeros, Synthetic Biologics, Xenoport, and Medgenics, don't quite look right for me to short in RL due to one or combination of the following reasons; very high existing short ratio, very low institutional ownership levels, severe stock decrease in 5yr chart, too high insider ownership (>35%), or significant insider buying. INFI is actually a short I initiated, but I am regretting doing so and will close out relatively soon since I missed that it met one or more of my above avoidance criteria.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 7/28/2012 12:47:50 AM
Recs: 1

Onyx was a red thumb because I was expecting a negative Ad Comm vote - I was wrong and haven't gotten around to re-reviewing, but I'm pretty sure they're a potential buyout candidate now. Pacira is in the midst of a drug launch and clearly the street is optimistic - institutions may have gotten some inside info on sales. So no, I don't think these are good shorts. Far be it from me to say what is, I've never shorted a stock and don't know why low institutional ownership, for example, is bad for shorting. I do know there's plenty of crap out there - maybe Peregrine?

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 3/4/2013 12:34:50 PM
Recs: 1

Finally took my first real life position with 500 shares today at 46.1. I've mostly lost my ability to gauge the value here because I don't understand how enzalutamide fits into the rapidly developing scheme of therapy for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Like Amicus, this buy is mostly motivated by a recommendation from Portefeuille.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 3/8/2013 12:04:19 PM
Recs: 1

Sold 200 shares at 49.13 for a $600 profit for the Portefeuille account.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 3/15/2013 12:07:02 PM
Recs: 1

Just bought 200 shares at 46.3, checking out Portefeuille's tranche approach.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/4/2013 1:47:29 PM
Recs: 1

Just sold 200 shares at 48.82 for a profit of $528 for the Portefeuille account. Still have 300 shares cost basis 46.18.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/12/2013 3:00:05 PM
Recs: 1

Sold 150 shares at 51.35 on 4/5/13 for a Portefeuille collaboration profit of $775 and 150 shares today at 53.5 for a profit of $1098. Now completely out of the stock for a total profit of $3000 for the collaboration. Small gains add up ...

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.66) Submitted: 10/23/2013 5:27:44 PM
Recs: 1

now 40 shares in #zzporte and in the green by around $4951.

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