MannKind Corp (NASDAQ:MNKD)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutic products for diseases such as diabetes and cancer.

Recs

2
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 6/17/2013 4:07:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.57 MNKD Score: +14.77

I really have to kick myself on this one. At the end of last year I looked over all the stocks in my biopharma database and tried to predict which would be the biggest runner of 2013. My conclusion? Mannkind. But I never bought in or even green thumbed because the run started earlier than I expected and I kept waiting for a pullback that never came. As the share price gradually rose I raised my thresholds but the stock kept rising beyond them. And after the company solidified their guidance to topline results of Affinity 1 and Affinity 2 in mid August, the stock went parabolic. The moral: don't be so obsessed with catching a stock at the absolute bottom. Once your thesis is established, buy an initial tranche and then continue to buy at intervals at lower or higher prices as long as the thesis remains intact. Even if you never accumulate your whole planned position, you won't be left empty-handed.

Now I'm left with another crummy red thumb. I don't think Mannkind is worth two billion even if the Affinity trials are a resounding success and Afrezza is approved the next time round. I've been a long-term bear on Mannkind for years and my reasons are well-documented here. A 300% rise in share price this year is completely unjustified and simply represents traders playing the "greater fool" game. I'm terrible at judging when that game will end but at some inflection point, whether it is positive data or drug approval, this stub is going to tank.

Report this Post 3 Replies
Member Avatar Bogart007 (< 20) Submitted: 7/13/2013 7:37:09 PM
Recs: 0

Why won't a highly successful billionaire who has called/ founded 10/10 major winners and invested almost $1 billion of his own money fail now? Why won't an inhalable insulin, "the Holy Grail" for diabetics, finally gain approval and transform the treatment of diabetes?

I am a medical doctor with 29 years in private practice and hope the bears, including "The Street", are wrong.

Bogart007

Member Avatar trackjakeambrose (59.92) Submitted: 8/6/2013 9:04:14 PM
Recs: 0

Hey zz I actually found this one based on checking the insider trading site I greened it when an insider bought 100 mill worth . I'd wach what he does before I red thumbed this

Member Avatar mmkstarr (< 20) Submitted: 9/7/2013 3:12:49 AM
Recs: 0

So you're saying buy/bet above & below the curve during the rising edge.

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