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A global provider of agricultural products for farmers.
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BeautifulPlumage (99.91) Submitted: 4/03/08 11:32 AM : Start Price: $116.72 MON Score: -0.54
An absolutely wonderful company that is just too expensive, I would buy a big piece at $60 a share, I would sell it all $90, but $117 discounts years of stellar growth, and ignores the possibility of a slowdown. Plus, 3/4 of the profits come from corn, and those will drop when the boom in corn is over. A lot of that boom is based on ethanol subsidies, and when a serious presidential candidate goes to Iowa and says, straight talk: ethanol subsidies are wrong, even an optimist should concede there is some risk that legislators will come to their senses and get rid of those subsidies.
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jenwebb1954 (44.00) Submitted: 5/15/08 2:53 PM
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I would be more concerned with GMO's and Monsanto than I would be with Ethanol. I think you over-estimate the involvement with it and corn. The upside (perhaps if they can ride out the GMO issue) is they are deep into the transfat issue and low linoleic beans
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seabass6251 (< 20) Submitted: 6/05/08 1:22 PM
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Even more than your argument or that of the first replier is that Monsanto has a monopoly on corn and soybean seed...which has become their core business. If you remember back to economics class, an un-regulated monopoly reaps huge profits for itself...especially when demand has increased for the products Monsanto supplies.The future of ethanol or GMOs or whatever pale in comparison to the effect government oversight could have on Monsanto should they ever decide that a monopoly-type business model directly supplying our nation's food supply is dangerous.But, in the meantime, how can't you take a little action on a one-horse show?
Troy2008 (42.26) Submitted: 6/10/08 2:06 AM
I disagree, corn doesn't play a big factor in this. But, you already know this based on your losing score shorting Monsanto...
melbourne49 (< 20) Submitted: 6/11/08 5:10 PM
farmers need this product to continue crops without using hormones I see it as a $200 stock.
FourthAxis (47.21) Submitted: 6/19/08 4:14 PM
"ignores the possibility of a slowdown." - Yeah...you know...a food slow down.
BeautifulPlumage (99.91) Submitted: 7/28/08 4:37 PM
I'll check again, but I seem to recall that almost all of their revenue increases in the last few years have been from selling corn seed and roundup pesticides for corn growing. I'm sure world demand for corn would be going up even without using it to make ethanol, but ethanol probably accounts for a big part of the increase. Ethanol subsidies are fragile, since they make no sense scientifically or economically. Without wanting to get into politics, one of the presidential candidates supports dropping the tarriff for Brazilian ethanol, and that would pretty much kill the use of corn for making ethanol. On the other hand, Monsanto has smart technology that will do well in any environment, and at any corn price. It just makes too much economic sense to pay a bit more for more productive traits, and that is true for any crop. I think the concern over GMOs will fade as the fears prove unfounded, and as people acknowledge the fact that they have been eating modified food for a while and the sky hasn't fallen. When people start understanding that GMOs can actually REDUCE pesticide use, add useful micronutrients, reduce water use, etc, the spectre of frankenfoods will die down, and the European market will open up too. Like nuclear energy, sensible thinking will eventually win the day, although nuclear energy is an example of how LONG that can take. (I am referring to the fear of nuclear energy and radioactive waste; the cost of nuclear energy still seems prohibitive, and I think windpower would be a much better investment.)
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