+ Watch MOS
on My Watchlist
The Company is the producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the global agriculture industry.
You smell that? Do you smell that? Manure, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of manure in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill sprayed, for twelve hours. When it was all over I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' dink pesky insects. The smell, you know that manure smell, the whole hill. Smelled like...victory. Someday this Agribusiness run up is gonna end....
but not today
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow... but soon, and for a year or more.
This bubble will be for a while. The land is running out and demand will increase. Less land w/ higher demand especially in China will keep the commodities hot. Take a look at the stock FEED.
Hmmmm...usually we're on the same page. I'm not following this call though...I mean...we're talking about scare supplies to grow food for the world. Even with the quadrupple baggers going down...the P/Es are still legit, the fundamentals are still legit, the demand is still there...and will be despite the economy. Then again, maybe you're just "early."
I am early, I am getting punished, I did not see the reason for the parabolic run. I do now. I came here, mainly, because I hate two of the hedge funds that run up companies are in this space. I like real/commodity based assets in general. But these stocks have gone parabolic. Ultimately, there will be food riots and the government will institute price controls at this rate. I maybe a long time before this stock returns at my entry point. I am getting killed here. I got killed in FXI also. I was early, but right.
Submitted: 1/16/08, priced between $80-90 around then (gotta love the volatility of this stock),closing price today = $127,you stepped in front of a train with this one.
FXI was almost as bad. I really looked crazy there, but a year later...I was right. These stocks could easily trade for half of their current P/E and valuation. I am just waiting for someone to pin prick this bubble. I could be hear a long time. $30 to 129! Wow, you never know this could got to $1000 on idiocy, but I can wait, I have the poker chips to wait this out.Would I do this with real money? No, I might consider a small short position at $129.
We get it you don't like it, and eventually after several years go by the stock will level off, but you are just missing the whole point of these fertilizer stocks. They literally are the Opec of food production, and as the world population keeps growing, people need more food. It is simply a supply and demand issue. Has nothing to do with just momentum, or even largely because of ethanol. Mos will double before it crashes over the years, simply because their EPS and REAL growth rate warrant it.
Lol, OPEC of food production? Really? That is funny. Is that what they are telling people?The worlds population has been growing for the last hundred years. This stock has gone from 30 to 140 in six months. DO I LOOK STUPID?A BIG WHOPPER OF A LIE HERE:"Has nothing to do with just momentum, or even largely because of ethanol."
Apparently you are. MOS's next earnings report is due July 4. I guarantee they will beat their current estimate, as per EarningsWhisper, of 1.69. In fact they have beaten the estimates the last 4 quarters. It is projected that the world population will increase by almost 30 pct within the next 50 years. That means more mouths to feed. China is one ot the biggest buyers and they are NOT doing it because of ethanol. You honestly think that these companies are only selling their products to US corn growers? In fact Agrium CEO on a recent CNBC appearance stated that ethanol was only a small part for their company's growth. Mos went to 140 because their EPS growth WARRANTED it. The prices they are receiving rose DRAMATICALLY and the upward pressure will CONTINUE to grow for years to come. You can't dig these mines overnight. I generally buy the stocks I pick here. I own MOS. I will continue to own it for years to come. I fully expect it to trade in the 200s over the years. I don't expect it to continue to skyrocket at its last 6 month pace but over the years the trend is UP. Will the ride be bumpy? Yup, because of its high beta, but that is what option play is for. As for you, I suspect you have zero "skin" in the game. Your argument boils down to "hey it went up alot so it has to drop alot." Will it correct? Yes, and has been (I submit the 110-120 is its baseline and a buy-in point). Will it plummet like you think? No, no financial reason for it to do so. And if you claim there is at least present the argument instead of the old "it is so because I say it is so."
Your argument boils down to "hey it went up alot so it has to drop alot."Yep, plus the P/E is 3x normal.RCA went up 900% in five years before the 1929 sell off. I am way early on these Ag plays. I have no skin in the game. I am expecting a de leveraging as hedge funds and people cannot borrow and run up. If Obama wins, capital gains tax will cause a sell off. The winner will get sold to cover the losers.
Reason for Mos's run-up couldn't possibly be because it's EPS went from .05 in !st Q 2007 a share to $1.05 a share in 1st Q 2008 and climbing within a year huh? EPS .47 in 2005, .18 in 2006, .80 in 2007, predicted 4.00 in 2008, 6.00 in 2009. That is some impressive growth. And THAT is why the stock rises. You are reaching for arguments when you compare RCA in 1929 to today (a market back then that didn't have margin requirements which contributed a lot to causing a market collapse).None of us can predict the future. At best we can make educated guesses. I choose fundamental financial analysis, Time. obviously, will tell. I made my investment and feel good about it. Short the stock if you feel confident. But you won't. I expect volatility but I am confident in the long run. That's is all I can do.
Potash has gone from the average $100 per ton to above $600. Mos and other companies fill a very until recently underdeveloped market need. Now everyone wants in the game and are making huge invetments to fill worldwide demand. As supply reaches market in record numbers competition will take its toll. Those estimates are way too enthusiastic for earnings for a fertilizer company especially when its pretty easy to make the product.
Easy to make? Do you realize how deep mines have to be dug for it? There are a few smaller players wanting to get into the business and they plan several YEARS before they can get these mines going. Spot on potash has hit $1000 per ton. If anything the estimated EPS stats will wind up conservative. Inia has been a big buyer of MOS's goods. Just watch the July 4 earnings.
Inia=India. Can't edit after posting ;/
About three-fourths of the potash used in U.S. crop production comes from VAST, high quality potash deposits in western Canada. Commercial production of potash in the U.S. has largely been centered around ore deposits near Carlsbad, New Mexico, and at Moab, Utah. Potash is also produced by evaporation of brines . . . such as those from the Great Salt Lake . . . in Utah and California.Note the word VAST as in more than plenty.Short term, most likely you are on target but the money grab wont be left to these or just a handful of companies alone. Everyone wanting to get a piece of the action will create a very high production level.I can more than guarantee you that no company is going to go years trying to dig 3000 feet, especially with companies that have more money than most nations. They will do this in months.
Eventually you may be right, and as stated there are a few mines planned to come on line in a few years. But when you look at Mos's projections I can only but see it to be much higher this time next year. Some, even CAPS stats here, are projecting $12 earnings per share next year. Even a conservative PE of 15 puts the stock at 180 by next year. Certainly not a burning pace as the passed year but hell still a good rate of return. It will just be a bumpy ride as we have been seeing. But if anything this is a buying opportunity especially ahead of the July 4 earnings. Best play is to buy the stock, write some calls and buy some puts, and trade off stock's volatility, which is what I have been doing.
Food inflation causes riots and overthrows, politicians know this, they will want to keep their jobs. These guys have a government supported monopoly, that has come to light recently with the food/fertilizer run up. You can ride this down over the next couple years. Some people held on the internet stocks after the tech bubble popped too. GL"I choose fundamental financial analysis "Okay then riddle me this....why does this company deserve such a high P/E? Hype and ethanol and a monopoly that is now threatened.BREAK--------------------------------------------------FYI -You said "Agrium CEO on a recent CNBC appearance"For me this is an almost automatic underperform, and I will look into a short position. But what do I know?
These stocks are a crowded trade. I hate crowded trades. You are late here, the stock is up 300% in six months. The population has not grown that fast.
You would consider a stock with an EPS of 12 selling for say 180 having a high PE? Growth rates are the key, something which you just ignore. Mos plans to increase capacity by about 1/3 current capacity and they expect it to take them to 2012 to accomplish it. Seriously I don't really feel like getting into a childish debate with you. You made your prediction, I made mine. Let's talk this time next year and see who wound up being right. And it isn't crowded. That's the whole point. Now if you want to talk FSLR with over a 100 PE in a truly crowded field with ever changing technologies you won't get an argument from me.
Projections are not good. At the scale they have been selling means the World has been planting more than usual, heck who doesn't like money right? Remember the mortgage industry when they were financing everyone. Well Rough rice is rapidly dropping in price while reports come in from more supply than demand.
Depends on who you listen to. On Bloomberg a "food" expert was predicitng food supply shortages down the road. Weather can also have a tremendous unpredictable impact. Every farmer wants greater yields per acre. That is what these fertilizer companys offer. While the rate of increase per tonne might level off, the demand for it is never going away. And while more players may enter the picture down the road, setting up these mines takes considerable capital and long term investing. I suppose Google could do it easily if they wanted.
abita, if you want to continue this argument, you really need to educate yourself regarding the fundamentals of this business. from the beginning your reference to "manure" indicates you don't even know what the product is."I was early, but right." Regarding the fertilizer sector, you are about 15 years early.Come back when you understand the business and the product.
Mos announced that they expect their next earnings report to be "robust." I can only but interpret that to mean the estimate of 1.69 will be quite conservative. I sure hope people bought this stock when it corrected to 115. Even at current price it is still a strong buy imo. And if you want a great way to play it, buy it and write Sept or Dec 160 calls which give nice premium returns. Or you can just do it month to month. Yes you lock in upside gain but that gain would still be a great return.
Respect your score and achievements, however, two areas I LOVE for the next 10-20 years are: Aternative energy & agriculture. MOS is a 200 stock in the next 12 months. Continuing to short this will kill you. Look at the fundamentals. 3 year barrier to entry on these mines for the raw product and a rising midde class in the emerging contries. Its a no brainer!
Wow MOS at 54. Man was I so wrong short run. Glad I got out when I did in real life. I capitulate here.
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