Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

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The Company develops, manufactures, licenses, and supports a range of software products for many computing devices.

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Avatar leobourne (41.47) Submitted: 6/19/07 12:38 PM : Start Price: $29.73 MSFT Score: 8.97

Whether people like it or not, sooner or later they will have to move to the Vista operating system. These days, having multiple operating systems on one computer is clunky. Most people will just buy a new computer. I think the big surge of new orders will start in the holiday season at the end of 2007. Once an expanding number of people get new computers with Vista and learn its advantages (assuming there are any), then other people will want it. These days it doesn't pay to upgrade a computer. It's nearly as cheap to buy a new one, and that's what people without Vista will do. Also, an important factor is that the more expensive versions of Vista have security features lacking in XP, including an encryption method that requires a new chipset with a Trusted Processor Module. I don't think XP machine hardware will be able to take full advantage of the encryption, although I am not sure. In any case, my view is that starting in late 2007, everyone will start to upgrade to Vista, and I think there should be at least three generations of Vista within the next few years sold as upgrades and not service packs. This year's initial Vista rollout won't earn vastly more for Microsoft as such, because the number of Vista sales is pretty much linked to the number of new PC sales. But I think the PC sales will increase in 2007 because of increased global demand in general and also peoples' need to buy a new computer with Vista on it, for performance and features. Microsoft also generates a lot of money from add-ons like Visual Studio and documentation. I think there will be more purchases of upgrades to those software packages than usual, because everyone will eventually want add-on software that operates seamlessly with Vista. In the very long run, I think public domain software, such as Linux, will gain market share, but I don't see that happening for another few years. Google or other companies could make shared software available on the web, but this is just reinventing the wheel. Remote access to software was called timesharing back in the 1970s, and there is nothing wrong with it, but lightning speed will be dominated by desktop-based software until we get optical fiber to every home and start using gigabit rates. and that could take another decade. All Microsoft has to do is avoid mistakes in order to continue secular revenue growth. They will probably do another divided or a buyback to burn some of their cash, if they can't find suitable acquisitions. One downside to Microsoft is that their Visual software methodology, based on property grammars and object-oriented programming, sometimes interacting with the Windows registry hive, is a complex, Tolkienesque approach to programming. I do not know if it is viable in the long run because of the complexity, and that is one reason why Linux and its associated software may win out in the end. For those of you who aren't computer dinosaurs like I am, please note that nearly all the so-called modern software on PCs, regardless of the vendor, is essentially a rehash of concepts that have been around for over 30 years on "big iron" mainframes. As someone who used to program mainframe software, I am horrified by the poor reliability, slow speed (given the hardware's clock rate) and labyrinthine operations of much of today's PC software, but I don't see big iron as coming back anytime soon, except perhaps after fiber puts instant computing power on every desktop, so it doesn't matter where the cpu power resides.

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Avatar Michael2k (95.77) Submitted: 6/25/07 8:00 PM

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An increasing number of people are opting to buy Macs or install Linux instead of moving to Vista.

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Avatar LurkyLurky (99.96) Submitted: 6/27/07 10:13 PM

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May I please have your old computer that you're throwing away to upgrade to a new OS? I'll install Ubuntu Linux on it and have a snappy, secure PC.

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Avatar Mactalon (98.35) Submitted: 7/18/07 11:11 PM

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Right. I was reading the other day in a magazine that just because Windows won't run on your old machine, doesn't mean it's useless. Some versions of Linux will run on almost any computer newer than 1992 or so. While yes, all Windows users will eventually be forced into Vista, the few, the wise, and the brave will find their way to the..... penguin. :-) (and yes, I dislike MSFT)

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Avatar ZetaPingPong (73.05) Submitted: 9/24/07 12:31 PM

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Theres a joke out about Vista that even viruses are having compatibility issues :) Windows isn't the greatest thing out anymore and Vista, from what I've heard from many people, is far from being impressive. Not a Mac or Linux fanboy since I do use Windows but I don't feel there is still that same dominating power that Msft once had on the market.

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Avatar johnshot (87.76) Submitted: 10/09/07 6:51 PM

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An interesting summary to which I would respond:

1. Microsoft's Enterprise level software is clearly inferior to that of SAP, Oracle and virtually any other vendor. Doesn't Microsoft use SAP?
Like many of Microsoft's "Enterprise Level" tools, SQL Server is an unreliable database which has great difficulty in providing high availability in intensive processing environments. Like most Microsoft products, it crashes on a regular basis and of course, is incredibly slow.
This inability to deliver enterprise rough and ready tools underscores that Microsoft has become trapped in an end-user software environment that will only deteriorate in the coming years. Young people don't care what operating system they are on; they just want features. Note the continuing migration to texting and other handheld devices. This should be a warning flag.

2. XP is much more reliable than Vista, and hardly any corporate network guys that I know would even consider moving to Vista. As for the home front, I just install XP and will hold out until my gaming needs demand that I use Vista. For the foreseeable future (especially with dual-core, quad-core, high RAM availability) in current hardware, I see no reason for Vista....at all. And if high-end users don't adopt Vista, then neither will corporations or individuals; at the very least adoption will be slow. Watch for a spike in hardware sales as people leap to take advantage of the XP extension over the next year.

3. The Office Suite? Probably the best thing Microsoft has going for it right now.

4. Microsoft Visual Suite? I agree; highly proprietary and a major pain to program in. Why bother when open-source libraries and IDE environments are improving rapidly?

5. One more note; how long will it be before people merely install a copy of XP on a centralized VmWare instance, allowing everyone on the network to log in and use that copy? On my XP laptop, I currently run
Win 2000 , Win 2003 Server, Linux (RHT) Enterprise and Sun Solaris. A small office could run DOZENS of virtual MS instances on a single box. And if they ran XP or Win 2000, this would be free. Also note that under the current licensing for Data Center edition, I believe Microsoft allows unlimited instances of virtual machines.....so one copy can be used many times. Food for thought.

6. Summary; If dividends continue, this is (as another post stated) a good safe place to park money. Growth? I don't think so.

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Avatar ceo1nycboss (90.43) Submitted: 1/09/08 1:48 PM

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I strongly Disagree. People now have Choice (Apple/Linux?Etc.) & are Tired of MS's constant updates, bugs, high prices, greed, etc. MSFT (Gates) will have to Reorganize Big Time or get hit hard.

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Avatar ceo1nycboss (90.43) Submitted: 1/09/08 2:13 PM

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LOL. That's the spirit. MSFT is finished as an OS of future. The company has turned into a disorganized bureaucracy.

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Avatar ragefear (97.01) Submitted: 1/17/08 12:48 PM

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I agree that the rise of vista sales is directly correlated with new PC sales. I for one will reinstall XP even if I purchase a new computer. Its a resource hog that doesn't allow older PCs to run it very well. I Beta tested it and got very tired for the seemingly random security questions. If it proves to sell on more than new PC sales then its because its "pretty" and "seemingly more secure." Who are the ones stating this? The people who don't know any better. They will become annoyed when their seemingly swift computer from 2005 now becomes a slug and won't run some older programs, forcing yet more upgrades and purchases... BAH! Before I purchase a new PC tho, I think I will play with an intel based MACBOOK Pro. Expensive, yes, able to run windows XP, better than most PCs.

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