Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 6/28/2011 3:28:35 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.05 MSTX Score: +52.33

I reached out to Adventrx about a year ago, seeing multibagger Bottle Imp potential based on their early 2010 performance after the initial Exelbine NDA submission. I gave up on the pick two months ago when the Bottle Imp had failed to materialize once the NDA resubmission had already been accepted with an established PDUFA of 9/1/11.

The share price was actually in a declining trend until June 20, when Rodman & Renshaw issued an absurd price target of $16 based on the potential of recently (and cheaply) acquired sickle cell disease candidate poloxamer 188. A few days after that came a price target of $7.50 from PR outfit Vista Partners. Who hired them and why? Meanwhile, the usual SA remoras have sniffed out the pump and are trying to latch on for the ride.

The reality of Adventrx is that even if approved, the long-term commercial prospects for Exelbine aren't good. Feuerstein has pointed out that vinorelbine is now infrequently used, and Exelbine provides only a slight benefit over cheap generic vinorelbine with respect to reduced vein irritation at the infusion site. The company's next most advanced compound, emulsified docetaxel, has even weaker prospects.

Jump on this rising knife at your own peril. I'm personally not worried about going 100 points into the red in CAPS, if I can maintain a marker for a potential short position in the future.

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