Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSEMKT:NAVB)

TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/7/2011 5:20:35 PM : Start Price: $2.61 NAVB Score: +6.33

Neoprobe Corp is trending down a little harder than I had expected and my low limit order that's been sitting for a few weeks after the spike from $1.95 to $3.37 during August after a report that the FDA had accepted it's new drug application for review for its Lymphoseek® (tilmanocept) as a lymphatic mapping aid for various types of cancers such as breast cancer and melanoma. I had expected a drift down and set my limit at $2.60. The share price has been trending down slowly toward my target, but spiked down sufficiently today to activate my limit, but also demonstrate that the downward trajectory may not be over as impatient investors decide not to wait on the FDA. FDA approval, if received is also subjective as to street value of the marker against standard "vital blue dye" methods currently in use. Vital Blue Dye has been estimated to have a 20% failed detection rate, vs Lymphoseek's 1% failed detection rate.

Biopharms are very subjective between data points and filings and FDA rulings can pop the biopharm, or result in sell on the news. I think there is some upside for Neoprobe from here, but I'm less sure that a better entry point might not be lower as the wait period begins for a response sometime next year. There have been several strange events on the road for Neoproble including a shareholder who requested the FDA NOT to accept the application while he shorted the stock.

I usually lose on these calls in the short run as I try to find an entry without doing much DD on the important dates and the market potentials.