NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSEMKT:NBY)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

Recs

3
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.74) Submitted: 1/17/2012 10:38:01 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.42 NBY Score: +9.05

Over the last six months, NovaBay has been reanimated from the low of 0.7 that followed the abject failure of aganocide NVC-422 in a phase II trial for viral conjunctivitis. The decline was exacerbated by dilutive financing and the general distaste for speculative stocks in the late summer of 2011, and now the company is benefitting from the counterintuitive rush back into the sector. The stock has also felt the bellows effect of BMR-affiliated Seeking Alpha pumps, an effect which in recent years has proven to be very short-lived (see Zalicus, Cleveland Biolabs, Radient, and Ampion).

These are the reasons others see to be optimistic about NovaBay:

1. A partnership and commercial launch of NeutroPhase in China.

First of all, NeutroPhase is diluted bleach. We've seen how this is working out for Oculus. Second, attempts by Western companies to sell pharmaceuticals in emerging markets in Asia and South America have never amounted to anything in my experience.

2. The company has a partnership with Galderma for NVC-422, who are planning to initiate a phase IIb trial in impetigo in the near future.

A year ago, NovaBay had two large pharmaceutical partners for phase II programs of NVC-422. After the conjunctivitis trial failed, Alcon dropped them like a sack of potatoes. Now they're halfway to having no partners for NVC-422. Furthermore, I've been hearing about the impending initiation of this phase IIb trial for more than a year. If Galderma hasn't kicked it off yet, I have to wonder about their degree of interest in the program.

3. NVC-422 showed a better effect against the adenoviral conjunctivitis subset in the previously mentioned phase II trial and the company is now planning on performing a new phase IIb trial for that indication.

Post-hoc analysis. No statistical significance. Futile.

I've been thinking about starting a new anti-Seeking Alpha pumper profile in CAPS, using VFC, Garza, Timeless Wealth, and several other troubled souls as my star stock "anti-selectors". If I find the time, NovaBay might be my opening pick.

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Member Avatar Sum111 (30.62) Submitted: 1/19/2012 9:27:09 AM
Recs: 2

And Penicillin is but refined bread mold. Bactrim a rarefied Sulfur compound. Don't be so quick to write them off as "diluted bleach" as it is a bit more complicated than that. As for its failed conjunctivitis trial, I suggest this article in Cataract and Refractive Surgery Today to help explain why there is a need for further study.

http://bmctoday.net/crstoday/2011/08/article.asp?f=phase-2-clinical-trial-of-nvc-422-for-adenoviral-conjunctivitis

I believe that the success or failure of aganocide compounds will be determined by its clinical trials and nothing more. Until more is revealed, I will stay long in NBY.

Member Avatar my2cents4u (< 20) Submitted: 1/20/2012 12:23:01 PM
Recs: 0

ZZ: help us all understand your motivation here:

1. No word from you on this stock until now when it is being quietly accumulated and rising in price, doubled since last quarter.
2. Trumpeting Alcon trial failure as if it was the defining moment when in reality it merely a sideshow pilot.
3. "..halfway to having no partners for NVC-422" So?
4. "I've been thinking about starting a new anti-Seeking Alpha pumper profile in CAPS.."
Are you for real? You were pumping Oculus before; is there some sour grapes going on here? Can you be objective?

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.74) Submitted: 1/21/2012 1:51:27 PM
Recs: 1

1. http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/NBY/5720108/novabay-like-oculus-seems-to-h.aspx This is my previous outperform pitch on NovaBay. You appear to have applied the same due diligence to researching my position as you do to picking your stocks.

2. After the Alcon trial failure the share price declined from 2 to 0.7. That's a defining moment if you define the value of your brokerage account by how much money is in it.

3. 1 is half of 2.

4. See #1. http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/OCLS/6111845/oculus-continues-to-wearily-jo.aspx That's what you call a pump? I've spent the last two years ripping Oculus new a-holes. The green thumbs are for the game. I am not here to be objective. I am here to express my opinion.

You probably believe that NovaBay dropped yesterday because of my pitch. You probably also believe you can make it go back up by casting doubts on my motivation. You are deluded in almost every way that a person can be deluded. Your two cents is highly overpriced.

Member Avatar my2cents4u (< 20) Submitted: 1/23/2012 1:17:11 PM
Recs: 0

Allow me to express my opinion as well then: you are quite full of yourself (as well as an abundance of rectal effluent).
Hang on to your day job.

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