Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
CAPS Rating:
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
Taking it to the street
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
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I officially hate this stock.
Why?
Because I so badly misjudged it. I still think it's wildly over-valued, but boy did I screw this up.
At the time of my red thumb I thought this company was simply a rental-by-mail company and had no idea about the video-on-demand they were either doing at the time, or were about to. So chalk this one up to what happens when you don't do your research. I'm in Canada and until recently we didn't have Netflix, so my red thumb was based on what I knew and not taken too seriously.
Now I even subscribe to the service and greatly enjoy it.
I'm assuming I'm going to get stuck ending this in the red, but hopefully I can regain a chunk of points before I do.
I think you might want to ditch the red thumb prior to NFLX spreading to Asia & Europe. Just a little friendly help.
boise (up 1700% with my portfolio in netflix)
And now... Netflix Separates DVD and Streaming Plans
http://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2011/07/12/netflix-separates-dvd-and-streaming-plans-for-good/
So they're basically phasing out the part of the business I never liked.
if you hold onto it long enough you might get those points back :)
Mmmm Asia and Europe are different stories if you ask me... I don't think DVD by mail will work in either place. What advantage does netflix have over other companies in those regions with streaming movies? Of course I've always underestimated netflix, but I do know Europe and Asia pretty well and I just don't see Netflix having an advantage.
I feel you dude but the problem with these is that your entire CAPS portfolio is completely dominated by the day-to-day movements of one stock, which can be plain awful at times. Luckily it seems you've built up enough of a score for it not to sink you (pretty impressive, actually)
Thanks, TMFSamstevens.
I got a little too pessimistic a few months after the bottom and began too many red thumbs. I still predict a major downturn and expect to get some major points back (at one point I was one of a small handful over the 10,000 mark), but there are some (like this one) that I'm sure I'm going to get stuck with ending in the red.
The recent price drop is only the beginning. Although you like the streaming video segment of the business, the move to this segment and away from mail subscription DVD will be NFLX's undiong. If you ever saw the inside of a postal facility, you would know NFLX had a monopoly on mail subscription DVD rentals. The move from store to mail subscription was Blockbuster's undiong. The move from mail subscription to streaming will be NFLX's undoing. Wait until a big player (like Apple) buys Hulu. Even in the current environment, NFLX must now compete with Amazon & cable provider video on demand service. The recent 60% hike in subscription rates will only increase the competitive environment. NFLX will be a player, but the Monopoly money multiples the stock currently commands will compress.
I red thumb this at 75 and I thought how much can you make if you spend money mailing stuff back and forth with royalties going to the movie companies. The business model didn't seem right for large uptick. I was wrong. They added the streaming and that is a good model. However, everyone is jumping into the fray and margins are becoming thinner and thinner. I just don't see this company anymore then average company. I will keep the red thumb.
Its over for netflix! they are messing with success
Actually, you will regain at least half of what you lost in about 1 1/2 yr if you close you red thumb and change it into a green thumb.
That's a pretty bold statement right there calling for a 500% increase in the stock price from here .. that too in the next 1.5 year ! TopAustrianFool
wow you are down 1000 points on this thing, there is no way you can recover the points unless these guys go bankrupt and you may need a long long long time for that to happen.
My advice is close the position and lick your wounds, if these guys keep raising your potential for more loses on points compounds... a $21 increase at this point, would mean 100 points lost for you... meaning a simple 25% increase on netflix would make you lose about 600 points. It's bad because you have a 99.95 rating, but stop damaging it by sticking to this one. Even if netflix fell 50% you would still be on the red by more than 500 points.
Obviously, it's your call. I just don't see this guys falling 50% from the current $241 any time soon.
One less than expected quarter and this stock will get hit pretty good. I'm down on my red thumb as well but not that much!!!
close it now!!!!!!!! and repick it with a stop loss trend is about to change. best for your score
To everyone who is so eager for me to close my negative NFLX pick, I want to point out that by not closing it so far I've recovered about 500 points from its peak. I still think I'm better off holding it for another year or so.
I agree with the red thumb. No matter how I run these numbers, the best case scenario is that Netflix suceeds in Asia and Europe and with the new higher prices. In that case, I don't see this stock climbing any higher in valuation. I predict that if everything goes well for Netflix over the next few years, the price should stay stable and let the company catch up to the market's valuation, much like Microsoft and Wal-Mart over the past decade.
Good day to be underwater on this pick!
Yep, but it's still my worst one. LOL!
Looking better for us both by the day. It never made sense to me, imagine it will bounce back stronger than every, but what a corporate blunder?
Like letting air out of a balloon! Where is your bottom? I am under 100 on my short, thinking about cutting my losses.
I'm not sure. I want to try to get a feel for it, but probably in the ballpark of about $100.
It's now nearly just my 3rd worst pick.
Keeps dropping on an up day for the market. I will try and hold for $100 as well.
If it doesn't get bought out by Amazon/Google, they are going under $20.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/why-netflix-is-still-a-sell/649729
What a fiasco? They will be studying this model for decades in business schools.
It's now only my 8th worst pick, and I've regained about 1,100 points on it.
I think I'm holding this for a while yet. I think it's a long-shot, but it's beginning to look possible that I can end this in the green.
Check the Insider Selling on this stock. The CEO obtains 5,000 shares in options weekly, at a cost of $1.50 a share, or $7.500.00. He immediately sells at market price. Before the plunge, he was netting in excess of $1,000,000.00 WEEKLY! He is continuing his selling at current market prices (the latest posted sale was October 6th). I'm surprised this hasn't generated more attention because of the price drop, as this information is posted by the SEC. Anyway I think you are on the right side of this stock. The only caveat is the upcoming quarterly earnings and forecast, which will probably move the stock a ridiculous amount in either direction.
TDRH, I think I'll hold this one for a little while longer. Who knows? Maybe this one WILL end up in the green for me. If not, it'll still be far closer than the -1,500 others suggested I take and switch to a green thumb then. What a fiasco that would've been. LOL!
Close one, almost pulled a Whitney Tilson there lol, covering his short and kissing ass, what an embarrassment...
Another good day to be underwater on this one. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Bottom line, between the Amazon cheap tablet and increased competition the key will be content.
Another good day to be underwater on this one. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Bottom line, between the Amazon cheap tablet and increased competition the key will be content.
Dear All,
I bought NFLX shares at around 7.00 dollars long time ago (influenced by Motley Fool's analysis), and unloaded them at US$290 and never looked back. The price may go down to US$35 around December 2011 (when Greece would vote no to Eurozone and she would go bankrupt amidst the world chaos) and will soon rebound to about US$50. Please be patient and you will reap huge profits. Thereafter, never look back again.
Best regards,
Peter Edwards, BAngkok, Thailand
Hey, I'm in Canada too and Netflix sucks the big ones. I have friends in the States that tell me about Netflix and its services, how great it is, etc. Well, I looked into it. The titles are few and I certainly could do better going down to my neighborhood box store for DVDs.
As for Netflix going into Europe... if they screw the pooch like they did with their Canadian entry, I'd be sorely tempted to short the stock.
And now they're projecting a loss for 2012. Maybe I will end this one in the green eventually. LOL!
^ lol fun and crazy roller coaster!
I've enjoyed reading this thread. I have learned from it as well...
My problem is that I always seem to give up on a position and close it too early, and this example of yours has shown me the virtue of patience.
I never got in when it was cheap( foolishly) and just watched the madness..What made them great was timing. When people could no longer be bothered dropping by the video store they were ready with movies by mail for a song. Then they figured it was time to kill the goose. Ooooppps- bummer.
OK, so they ink a deal with Disney today, stock goes up 10%.
My current -276 score here was way better than my one-time approximately -1,500.
They still have a P/E of 96, so I'm not ready to end this one just yet.