Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

wayneoworld (41.32) Submitted: 5/11/2011 8:17:49 AM

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This company draws you in with cheap monthly memberships but what you don't know when first joining will make your monthly payment higher. It's all designed to get more money from you per month. For example , if you want more then 1 movie per week the price goes up. So, they are averaging much more then $8 per customer.
That being said, I agree that this company is overpriced. There are other companies that are offering close to the same thing and there will be other companies in the future.
Of course I could be wrong but I wouldn't invest anymore money into this company. However, I wouldn't sell at this point. I would wait a bit and see if they get smarter with their process.
Another thing that they don't tell you is " most of the good, up to date, newly released Movies will have to be sent to you by mail. Yes , you can stream instant movies but they will be the older movies.

stan8331 (92.10) Submitted: 5/16/2011 6:37:15 PM

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For those bearish on Netflix, I'd like to hear a plausible explanation of how a current or future competitor is going to beat them. I can guarantee you it's NOT going to be anyone offering new release rentals at $4 a pop or $50 a month. Are people likely to lose their appetite for entertainment content? What Netflix is really offering is a viable, easy, cheap, value-added alternative to illegal downloading. Nobody else is even attempting to compete in that space and Netflix has a massive lead in terms of expertise and content acquisition. The possibilities for growth are immense.

davidm8797 (80.18) Submitted: 5/17/2011 1:58:18 AM

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Easy - your cable company can beat them with On Demand movies (which are much newer and not as user intensive as Netflix). That being said, Netflix doesn't charge $100 a month just to be available to you like a cable box does. Still, anytime I want a movie, I order it on demand. This market is just too easy for others not to get into it. At the moment, no serious competitors exist, but isn't that a good single to go ahead and start shorting the stock.

Other pointers to this include: Revenue has increased 79% since December 2007, stock price has increased by 777%. If that doesn't scream correction, I don't know what does. But more than anything, it passes the gut test. The gut feeling when you look at the graph of the stock price. The gut feeling you get when you hear analysts and talking heads blabbering about "Netflix, moat this, market share that". Yeah BS. It's just DVD service. That's all. Higher the climb, harder the fall. Wish the Puts were cheaper. End

PViddy (32.36) Submitted: 5/26/2011 4:58:01 AM

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I don't understand your reference to a "$70 billion market cap". Netflix's current market cap (May 25th) is $13.6 billion. It only has to go above that level for someone to make money. $70 billion would equate to a 5.14x increase in price, which is a 414% investment return! Hardly necessary for it to be a successful investment. Where are you getting this $70 billion figure? (FYI - I'm bearish also)

Kamale (< 20) Submitted: 5/31/2011 3:02:39 PM

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Yes. I bought this stock in 2003 at $13.30. I believed in it back then and I believe in it now!

- Kamale

stan8331 (92.10) Submitted: 6/3/2011 4:58:54 PM

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"Netflix doesn't charge $100 a month"

So basically then, the cable companies cannot beat Netflix.

As far as the whole "no moat, easily beaten" argument goes, again, I'm waiting to see the materialization of these imaginary competitors who will be able to beat the fantastic cost/benefit ratio Netflix offers (and as a Netflix subscriber, I can attest that they do add considerable value beyond merely making DVD's available online). I wouldn't claim it can't be done but nobody, including companies with massive resources such as Google, Apple and Amazon, have made the slightest bit of headway on the task as of yet.

pocketpair5477 (< 20) Submitted: 6/17/2011 4:11:32 AM

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in the past year i've seen one type of business in my city go under and 2 others do well. blockbuster video is completely gone from las vegas nevada. and i'm willing to bet that other towns/cities are experiencing the same thing. red boxes are poping up everywhere and netflix provides a better and move diverse service. it's hard to take red box too seriously..by the way netflix only charges 8 bucks for instant only membership it's 10 for the service that actually requires some work on their part. we are looking at 8 bucks a month with the only overhead being servers and buying the rebroadcast rights to the movies. they can outsource everything else to the post office...and they have. this makes them available every where in the US. if they expand to other countries it's a matter of wash rinse repeat. the business model is sound and the income is perpetuating without being expensive. and they just jacked the price up for home dvd service by $1 which allows for an increase in profits without any new customers...but their will be many new customers i see them as taking red box to the dirt. just as they have blockbuster and hollywood video rentals

borcobob (72.39) Submitted: 6/18/2011 10:27:14 AM

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I bought NFLX at $31.06 when the Fool site recommended it & at that time I thought how could it be worth that much!!! I still don't know how it ever got to where it is today. Sometime you just have to go with the flow!
THANKS FOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

concealedweaponR (< 20) Submitted: 6/23/2011 7:27:08 PM

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the thing is people are liking it so thats what will make it keep going up. i wouldnt red thumb this

Razzen (49.23) Submitted: 6/29/2011 1:51:41 PM

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Been listening to all the reasons why netflix cant go up for a year or so now.
Looking at the chart makes me hope all these foolish bears havent been shorting it with real cash.

lepant (93.63) Submitted: 6/30/2011 1:40:19 PM

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At this point with so many people yet clamoring that Netflix is overvalued and going to crash and it will be the death of us all, I'm not so concerned. It will be the point when all the bears throw in the towel and say sod it I give up that I will be concerned. Until that point as bears are turned into bulls the price will go up till there's no one left to convince of the fact Netflix is the greatest company ever. At that point the supply of greater fools will be exhausted and there's nowhere to go but down. As the price is clearly irrational fueled by momentum and in no way supported by the fundementals I wouldn't think of buying any shares at this point, but on the other hand if someone already had a long position I wouldn't recommend selling it; and I sure as hell wouldn't recommend taking a short position, remember as John Maynard Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

twozebras (< 20) Submitted: 7/5/2011 12:31:29 PM

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Reading all the posts, I think the bears have it wrong when they try to compare NFLX to a cable company. NFLX certainly piggy-backs on the cable fellows. The cable fellows have to install equipment and run wires, etc.; NFLX just downloads stuff over their infrastructure. The MORE infrastructure the cable guys put in, the MORE highways NFLX has to flow over. The cable fellows are the HORSE on the track; NFLX is the jockey.

I'm impressed with the way they have transitioned from the little red envelopes to downloads. Shows nimbleness. If the car companies could transition like that we could have solar powered cards next year.

I'm sorry I have only 100 shares. Sniff, sniff.