$121.54
3.24 (+2.74%)
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)
CAPS Rating:
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
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Netflix will own the DVD rental market for the forseeable future. Although companies have recently unveiled methods to download digital copies of movies, investors and consumers have been underwhelmed. I've read that quality digital downloads are at least five years away. Still, who really wants to watch movies on a computer? You can't exactly curl up with a loved one and some popcorn.
Going to cinemas to watch movies today is very expensive, particularly in urban areas. So I'm sure people are doing what I do: I've stopped seeing movies in theatres and instead add them to my Netflix queue. For $18, I can watch at least 10 movies each month. In a theatre, the same would cost me at least $100.
Netflix is also increasing its DVD sales operations. Viewers can purchase used movies -- on the cheap -- through the website. Renting movies through Netflix is a good way to see which movies one likes, and then one can purchase many of them if one so chooses.
Of course, is it inevitable that movies will one day be mainly downloaded from the Internet. I believe Netflix is currently doing lots of R&D in that area, so they will be poised to take advantage of that opportunity when it arises. The company is also diversifying into other outlets like independent movie companies. The future looks bright, and the share price is currently low.
Alright, I think you have it mostly right.
The future definately looks bright. A relatively strong position, first in, good business model that (so far) will be tough to duplicate. Cheap, I don't think so; 15-20 months ago they were in the $10-$12 range, and the biggest upside to the gain in price has been due to the non-action of their competition (Blockbuster, Amazon, Wal-mart).
Here is my big beef. What about those of us that have no desire to watch 5 or more movies a month. Their cheapest subscription is $9.95/mo (i believe), if I get the chance to watch 1 movie a month that's almost as expensive as going to the theatre (minus the popcorn and soda).
So what would I want Netflix to do, the same that Blockbuster has been doing for the past 15 years; take my credit card number and charge me $2-$3 bucks a movie. With this I get great service for a good price, I watch a movie I want and don't have to leave my house.
What would Netflix gain?
$2 per movie, 4-5 times a year, X 1 million additional customers = $10 mil/y; (conservative numbers). I might pay $4/movie and maybe 20 mil customers = 400 mil/y, that's not bad.
All that and a price closer to $20/share.
Just my thoughts
Greg