$118.30
-5.63 (-4.54%)
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)
CAPS Rating:
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.
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Recs
I ran a DCF on NFLX using the FCF from 2006. Assuming only a growth rate of 5%, terminal growth rate of 3%, and a discount rate of 20%, NFLX's future cash flows are worth $1.2B. Taking cash minus total liabilities, the company has equity of at least $200M. Add the present value of the DCF to the $200M and that puts the company right at its current market cap. A growth rate of 10% values the company at $1.8B, which offers a good margin of safety.
As far as current operations go, NFLX looks pretty good and is generating lots of cash. The Blockbuster threat is only a short term problem. Winning the OnDemand battle is what really matters. And that is all speculation right now.