Natural Grocers by Vita Cottage (NYSE:NGVC)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5


Player Avatar Snaake (42.54) Submitted: 5/9/2014 8:41:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $23.02 NGVC Score: +4.73

My CAPS call was placed at $23.03 on May 5, 2014 after shares of Natural Grocers Vitamin Cottage (NASDAQ: NGVC) plunged 37% due to the company lowering guidance on their 2014 forecasted same-store sales growth to 5.5 to 6.5%, previously at 7.5 to 8.5%. Shortly thereafter, several insiders acquired a total of 33,114 shares, including Kemper Isley (Co-President), Elizabeth Isley (Executive V.P.) & Directors Richard Halle & Edward Cerkovnik--a $750K vote of confidence.

During the first-half of 2014, NGVC opened 9 stores for a total of 83 stores in 13 states. The company plans to open 15 stores total in 2014 and sees the potential for 1,100 stores nationwide. This potential for aggressive growth is the reason the stock has been on my watch list over the last year for a real money strike. Unfortunately, my current cash position is negligible and needless to say, this is a teachable moment.

NGVC has a P/E of 45.14, a market cap of $543M, 83 stores and 2013 revenue of $430M. By comparison, Sprouts Farmers Market has a P/E of 58.26, a market cap of $3.96B, 172 stores and 2013 revenue of $2.4B. With the recent drop, shares of NGVC are now at an attractive valuation given future growth prospects. And while investors should not expect 1,100 stores overnight, perhaps135 stores, or more, are in the foreseeable future by 2017. We shall see on May 5, 2017!

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Member Avatar Snaake (42.54) Submitted: 5/9/2014 9:20:46 PM
Recs: 0

**Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage
****Have been focused on the recent fluctuations of the NASDAQ

Member Avatar cellofool100 (< 20) Submitted: 10/3/2014 12:59:38 PM
Recs: 0

I visited a store. Now I am selling my stock.I can study P/E, betas, Sales growth, etc all day but I should have checked out a store BEFORE I bought in. Here's what I saw on my visit: It was a rainy day and water from the roof was dripping on people as they walked into the store (gutters need cleaning?). There is a large foyer to the store but only one central entry. I would like to have an entry on each side as well especially on a rainy day. The colors for the store (bright orange and bright green) do not inspire Health to me but that is just me.The lighting in the store is odd: Natural lighting or something like that would give the produce more of a Healthy feel. Low ceiling in the produce area. Very few customers. When I ask for bulk items they pointed me to an aisle that had bagged oats, seeds, etc. My idea of "bulk" is I dig into a bin and get the amount of product I need. The store is HUGE and somewhat overwhelming. The personnel didn't seem to be health conscious individuals or have knowledge about Health for recommending vitamins or products. The bathroom has a keypad so you have to ask a clerk to use the potty - IF you can find a clerk. At the checkout they try and pitch items or events for you to buy ("Come to our Indian cooking class on Saturday" or "How about this immune booster"? I just wanted to get out of there.

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