Northern Oil and Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

Recs

13
Player Avatar SBeren (23.47) Submitted: 4/17/2008 3:50:14 PM : Underperform Start Price: $10.16 NOG Score: +28.10

I made my pick on 4/10/08 the day before news about Bakken location was to be released. Speculation was 250 billion - 500 billion barrels in reserves (Saudi Arabia has ~250 billion) News was slightly less than 4 bililon barrels recoverable (http://www.minotdailynews.com/page/content.detail/id/513951.html?nav=5010). Still a high number (25x higher than 1995 estimatse) even if this company can tap just a fraction of that, but no where near the rumors I was basing my pick on

Well on the day of the study:

4/11/08 - Insider Sells $3.58 mil worth of shares
4/11/08 - Insider Purchased $720,000 worth of shares
4/11/08 - Insider Sells $14.68 million worth of shares

Net: $17,540,000 dumped on 4/11/08 by insiders.

The net values came from finance.msn.com. On finance.yahoo.com they also include whether purchases were direct or indirect. Most of the sales were done indirectly, and sold way below the trading price for that day.

If insiders are trading their stock based on news (which they should more or less be privvy to considering they have to survey and drill themselves), and many are done indirectly and below market value, it looks very shady to me.

Report this Post 4 Replies
Member Avatar Fallen001 (74.74) Submitted: 6/13/2008 9:17:13 PM
Recs: 0

That's only with the technology known at this time ... Necessity is the mother of invention you know ..

Member Avatar TommersTheBest (52.32) Submitted: 6/18/2008 1:53:59 PM
Recs: 0

they will make plenty of money. the sky is the limit right now they are drilling all over the place. have a few producing now and should have that doubled by the end of the year.

Member Avatar Krn7iger (< 20) Submitted: 6/19/2008 2:31:40 AM
Recs: 0

I dont know about that, its true that the speculation right now is around 2.3 billion barrels to about 5 billion (aloooot less than what I hoped....), but this is DEFINATELY a bull for at least next few years. Obviously we don't know all the insider trading thats going on, but thats the case in most companies, since people on board needs to cash out and use their money on luxuries or watever it is they want to buy. Anyways I think the company shows a strong sign of possible growth for at least few years, since more domestic oil(well i guess oil in general) is most desirable at this time.

Member Avatar SBeren (23.47) Submitted: 7/18/2008 10:53:56 AM
Recs: 0

Strong growth for next couple of years? This company has no operations from what I can tell. Granted, I'm looking at one piece of data for that analysis, but I think it's all I need in order to draw that conclusion:Full Time Employees: 4!If anything, for the next couple of years, all that will happen is the company will incur losses.

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