Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE)
CAPS Rating:
A domestic manufacturer of steel and steel products whose customers are located in the United States of America.
Thousands of investors, millions in profit
A domestic manufacturer of steel and steel products whose customers are located in the United States of America.
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Recs
I've been in the steel business for 30 years and this is the most uncertain times by far. Nucor is a good company but the market is not there at this time. Times have been good for most of the steel group for a few years. We are are all hoping and praying for a miracle. Everybody in the steel business (myself included) is trying to hang on conserve any cash left. The selling price of steel has been discounted WAY more than the drop in scrap prices. The bail-out dollars have a direct steel value of less than 1% of last years domestic steel output. And now the foreign steel, even with it added tarrifs, is easing its way back in. 1st & 2nd qtr numbers will be way down. All in all, if your crazy enough to bet on steel, Go Nucor LONG TERM.
Get out before they broadcast the HORRIBLE news on 4-3-09. I believe revenue is going to be down about 60%. Watch out for most all of the steel industry in 2009, bad, bad year! Get rid of it all ASAP. Get back in NUE at around the mid 20's later this year.
There will be nothing but bad news for the near term. Expect 2nd qtr 09 revenue to be down around 60-65% vs 2nd qtr 08. Loss is hard to say with LIFO, Goodwill & inventory writedowns, but expect it to be around 200-250 mil. They can play with these numbers to a certain extent, so it's difficult to say. No help from stimulus here. Nucor has enough cash to ride this out, but it WILL hurt! No one really understands, outside of the steel industry, just what is taking place. The size of this problem will wipe out some of the steel industry this year. More cutbacks are coming. Now is a good time to sell. Maybe things will be better in 4th qtr?
Better close this one before you lose too many points.
Steel is coming off some long term highs, and many steel companies have reported record numbers recently (past year)... Considering the world wide stimulus packages, I would not bet against NUE any time soon. I am bullish on NUE for the foreseeable future.. I do not think you could be more wrong...
I smell rumor-mongering on this pitch thread. When two members have similar names make similar calls on the same two stocks, the only two on which they've taken positions on CAPS, I start to smell something.
I'm staying bullish on steel in general and on NUE in particular.
2 things:
1) There needs to be expiration limits on comments - what was true 1.5 years ago isn't necessarily true today
2) There needs to be restrictions against commenting by accounts which only have one stock... too fishy
10 recs... this post may stay up for years. Sheesh...
Be careful knocking an obvious industry insider's call. Goodluckchuck was dead on in his call on NUE. It went nowhere for 1 1/2 years, but he still voted to hold NUE for the long haul. I'm curious, do you think the analysts' rosy predictions of '11 EPS will become reality?