Novogen Limited (ADR) (NASDAQ:NVGN)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company is a pharmaceutical company involved in the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of products based on the emerging field of phenolic technology.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/21/2013 4:39:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.50 NVGN Score: +72.20

The unintentional biopharma comedy duo of Novogen and Marshall Edwards appears to be on the verge of dissolution. Marshall Edwards, now MEI, has chosen the path of cheap acquisition of a pseudo-pipeline. Their misadventures have been detailed in my underperform pitch on their CAPS page.

Novogen's path is even more serpentine. After a planned merger with lame medical device company Kai Medical fell through, they've decided to rapproche with Novogen's original founders who have been running a private outfit called Triaxial. As best I understand it, Triaxial has been pursuing the same isoflavonoid/benzopyran pathway that sunk Novogen in the first place. Triaxial is calling their pipeline "super benzopyrans" to differentiate them from the simple benzopyrans that failed to impact tumor growth in Novogen's trials. The financials of the Triaxial acquisition are naturally impenetrable.

My long-term prediction for the results of this incestuous transaction is ... more of the same. Super may sound better than simple, but that doesn't make me want to toss any cash into the black hole of hopelessness that Novogen has provided for the last five years.

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