+ Watch OLED
on My Watchlist
Universal Display researches, develops, and sells organic light emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for the flat-panel display industry.
While the demand premise is sound, I would personally need to understand two additional considerations (& I haven't looked very deep):> Competitive factors (competing manufactures or technology, how solid is their IP lock on this technology, how easy is it to copy this technology).> Manufacturing factors (what do yields look like, how capital intensive is the manufacturing).
Absolutely, these are also critical areas of concern. However, this is not a negative, just a need for more research. How could this be posted as a negative !!!
Have you now looked deeper? What thoughts?Seems like they have a good IP lock in terms of patents and manufacturing trade secrets with partner, PPG. The patents won't last forever, but trade secrets will depend on the research talents of their competitors and customers. The Samsung contract is a good endorsement of what they have until 2017 or so, but the ongoing absence of an agreement with LG gives pause. I believe UDC says LG will come round once their material purchases cross some threshold where it makes sense to separate out the royalty portion of the material price. I have yet to hear that OLED lighting will be anything but an architectural accent, but signing an agreement with a Chinese TV manufacturer would be a very interesting development. Their licensing/manufacturing strategy reminds me very much of QUALCOMM and CDMA, but I'm not as confident of UDC's ability to maintain a lock for as long. I've seen the stock go from $8 to $63 and fall back into the $20s. I feel pretty good going long at prices below $30 (the Discover private placement was around $28-$29 I believe).The current 20%+ of float short interest (as of Oct. 15, 2014) in the lead up to the Q3 earnings call has me thinking either inside knowledge of bad news or speculation that the absence of Samsung's royalty payment (it will come in Q4) will cause an earnings "surprise" for those not in the know. I'm hoping the latter of course. :)If OLED shows up in the Apple Watch that could be a good "halo" as would an announcement that Samsung has gotten 80%+ yields on >50" panel displays not requiring a white OLED.
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