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The Company is a provider of online business optimization services, which its customers use to manage and enhance online, offline and multi-channel business initiatives.
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dwot (99.99) Submitted: 3/05/07 12:21 AM : Start Price: $15.41 OMTR Score: -28.86
I found my self a winner, in terms of under perform. What are you thinking if you are buying this?It's book value is 1/10th of the share price.It's sales are about 1/10th the market cap.It is expected to maybe earn a stinking penny per share next quarter, and is currently losing money.Seriously, if you want to go for a stock pegged to earn a whole cent for the next quarter, let me tell you about versatile, VV on venture Canada.It is trading for about 60-65 cents. It is in a high growth area of technology, selling highly profitable business solutions to its clients, like this kiosk that enables a client to get in store credit immediately, enhances sales and making it a very profitable thing for other business to buy from them.They have tons of applications that help businesses manage data, protect data with wireless tags, etc.Seriously, here is a link to their product line, http://www.versatile.com/index.php?section=67And they are projected to grow to 2c earnings per share for the next quarter.I don't get what people are thinking at all for a piece of overvalued garbage like this.Compared to this piece of garbage, Versatile is trading at 4c on the dollar by comparison.Eek, eek, eek, eek!
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dwot (99.99) Submitted: 4/17/07 8:51 PM
Recs: 2 | Rec This
Don't go to that versatile link. I found some funny business in that stock.
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dwot (99.99) Submitted: 5/20/07 2:35 PM
Recs: 0 | Rec This
Some people say the stock market is risky and like gambling. When you buy stocks like this, it sure is gambling.If this company has stellar growth, which is possible, and makes that 31c/share for 2008, which you will not know for sure for about 2 years, well, that's only 1.6% of the current stock price. If you take into consideration the time value of money, at say 3% inflation, well, the $19.13 share price right now would have to be $20.30 to keep up with inflation, and that makes the 2008 projected earnings to be only 1.5% taking into consideration the time value of money.To catch-up to inflation 2008 earnings would have to 61c/share, twice what analysts project. The analyst's projections require 200% growth one year and 287% growth the next, very optimistic, and that would merely get this stock to half the rate of inflation IN TWO YEAR.I don't get it.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 5/20/07 2:52 PM
OMG!Dumb, dumb, dumb...The dilution is on a rocket launch out of the solar system!Q1/05 - 13,377,000 shares.Q1/06 - 13,968,000 shares.Q1/07 - 47,753,000 shares -- Blast off!What a joke, what a big joke. So, a 77% gross increase in revenue for Q1/07 over Q1/06, but a 242% increase in the number of shares. The dilution out stripped the growth by more than 3 times!
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 5/20/07 3:00 PM
My blog Goldcorp: The Oxymoron of Fiat Creation shows the effect of excessive dilution on a stock. Think of the same kind of thing happening here.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 7/02/07 7:16 PM
Time for another look. If I know how to short or do options or puts this one looks like a sweetheart choice...You've got to love the asset growth on this one, abracadabra, $48 million of wealth pulled out of the rabbit hat and zap, zing, ping, three cheers for Goodwill. And if that wasn't intangible enough, intangible assets go from 9.8 million to 36.8 million, or an addition $27 million of fantasy assets. Sheez, seriously, someone teach me how to make money on these losers. Net tangible assets went from $76.6 million to $9 million, a $67 million decline.Total liabilities have gone up by $50 million. I don't get it. It has net tangible assets of $9 million and investors have given it a market cap of $1.08 billion, yikes! I don't get it.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 7/27/07 1:55 PM
And what else would you expect, insider selling skyrocketing, $19 million in the last 6 weeks...
Gtrinvestor (99.99) Submitted: 9/05/07 2:24 PM
dwot - great work on this one. I gave you a rec & mentioned you by name in my write-up. A contrarian pick to be sure, but I think this thing is trading on momentum only.
GS751 (< 20) Submitted: 12/29/07 2:39 AM
stealing this underperform pick from you.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 12/30/07 1:29 PM
I found an analyst rating it a buy with a $40 target price. That would give a $2.3 billion market cap and the sales prediction is $277 million, or about 12% of the target price. There is a buyout that will increase the market share of this market from 28% to almost 50%, a 79% increase. The last 4 quarters sales were about $120 million without this merger and the losses adjusted to fully diluted shares was 13c/share. Last quarter was about $37 million and 4 quarters forward on that would be about $150 million. Somehow with this merger the analyst is predicting 47c/share earnings next year, which if you consider the 13c loss, that's a 60c per share change in earnings this analyst is forecasting. VSCN that is being bought out has a loss of 17c per share right now so there isn't favourable margins on this one to help it out at all... I did not look at the structure for how this buyout is happening. Debt and equity both further hurt the ability to turn this one around. Indeed interest on all the equity they've been issuing is 5.3% of the money they got last quarter. It reduced last quarter's loss to 2c from 6c. Get rid of that interest and you have to make up 4c eps to keep the loss at only 2c. I just don't see how this analyst expects this one to go from combined losses of about $12 million between these two companies ($15 million if you take out the interest earned) to $27 million in earnings, which is what has to happen for this company to do what this analysts projects. This looks beyond optimistic. A further point I completely don't get is 47c on a $40 target is only 1.2% projected earnings. With inflation running about 4.5% now, that's a negative 3.3% return. http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/12/13/ap4437436.html
TMFBreakerDave (99.41) Submitted: 5/10/08 1:29 AM
Recs: 3 | Rec This
Two things (at least) I think you're missing here: (1) the cash flow -- and note that this is a subscription business, with all the implications for future cash flow and "delayed-looking earnings" that AOL and Netflix and other winners exhibited to people's consternation, and (2) the significance of this industry, the company's leadership of it, and its expanding moat -- you don't appear to be paying any attention in your valuation-focused analysis to the actual business and industry dynamics. Just a few Foolish thoughts. --DG
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