Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:ONCY)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A development stage company focuses on the discovery and development of oncolytic viruses for the treatment of cancers.


Player Avatar TMFUltraLong (99.95) Submitted: 9/23/2010 2:57:18 AM : Underperform Start Price: $4.81 ONCY Score: +14.22

Oncolytics Biotech may actually dilute you to death! Much like ZZLangerhans beat up on this company I've come to do so from a purely sarcastic point of view. Oncolytics Biotech, hereafter known as the "Dilutor", issued 4.66 million shares in 2007, 2.65 million in 2008 and a STAGGERING 17 million shares in 2009. They are going to continue to milk shareholder value until they dupe some poor mid-cap biotech company to take a chance on them.Sure they have a phase III trial in the works for Reolysin, but the overall revenue impact if approved based on what I'm seeing is about 60-70M within four years... so they're already trading at 4-5 times their revenue value four YEARS from now. They probably have enough cash to make it 16 months from this point on, so you know what that means..more diluting! A long history of losses and frankly just too much froth. It's trading higher because it's a low volume stock that has caught a hedge fund's attention, nothing more. It will be back under $4 in no time.UltraLong

Member Avatar bridger48 (< 20) Submitted: 9/29/2010 1:19:35 AM
Recs: 1

On 9/23/10 I would have agreed with your closing statement that ONCY “will back under $4 in no time UtraLong”, now I am hedging that rush back to under $4. As a longtime follower of ONCY this week saw some real meat get put on the bone. First bit of news can be extracted from company presentations at the Rodman & Renshaw Global investment Conference 9/14/10 and the JMP Securities Healthcare Conference 9/28/10. During both presentations each done by different members of ONCY management the comment was made that KRAS mutant cancer was 100% responsive (level of activity not detailed) to Reolysin the trademarked version of the reovirus used by ONCY. Considering up to 70% of all primary tumors cancers have potential for some amount of the KRAS mutation and 90% of all metastatic cancer is positive for KRAS mutation the number of potential patients is staggering. With the prescreen KRAS NSCLC Phase II trial expecting to report preliminary data later this year any thing close to verification of the above statement will change the way cancer is being treated today. I don’t see the stock being allowed to languish prior to this trial reporting. Second news item occurred today with the granting of a US patent on the composition of specific reovirus used by ONCY. The meaning here is there will be no copy cats in the US market (60% the total market). Any variation of the reovirus would have to step through all the phase trials and that would be at least a 10 year effort. Old news is ONCY can already make the stuff at the 100 liter/batch level, this is considered to be a lower commercial volume. Many a good biotech product will fail because it can not be made at reasonable costs quantity or quality, not so with Reolysin.

The stock has began a period of increase volatility owing to the increase attention in the market and exacerbated a low float created by a cadre of loyal retail investors that will not sell and are more than willing to follow this company to the very end. You got to love the ONCY believer.

Oh, I should say yes, there will be more dilution, but if I am right financing coming from above $5/share is more than acceptable dilution.


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