Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:ONCY)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A development stage company focuses on the discovery and development of oncolytic viruses for the treatment of cancers.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 12/3/2012 7:08:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.26 ONCY Score: +10.38

I'm fairly confident that Reolysin is inactive, so I'll take any excuse to red thumb Oncolytics until it eventually goes to zero. I missed the lion's share of the decline but there's been no good news to explain the recent change in momentum. I suspect a fresh round of dilution will come before any significant data release from ongoing Reolysin trials.

Report this Post 6 Replies
Member Avatar fresnarus (< 20) Submitted: 2/11/2013 1:43:05 AM
Recs: 0

This must be one of your worst calls ever. Given that you left a sassy smack-talk comment on my favorable review of ONCY some month's back, I don't feel at all bad telling you I TOLD YOU SO.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 2/12/2013 12:02:18 AM
Recs: 1

Please document your current cost basis in this stock and all future buys and sells so we can see if Oncolytics ever makes you any money. I promise to document all my short positions. I've had much larger negative scores that have turned into huge positive scores. Nothing would make me happier than if this piece of garbage were to run to 12 so I can make $5000 on puts the way I just did on Celsion.

Member Avatar fresnarus (< 20) Submitted: 2/19/2013 11:59:51 AM
Recs: 0

Average basis: $3.15, bought at numerous instances in 2012 between $5.05 and all the way down to $1.77. No plans to sell before the science is done or the company is bought out.

I hope you didn't open a short position at $2.26, that's got to hurt and if there is any more good data released by the company then you're totally hosed. Well, if you get cancer one day you might be glad for another drug in the arsenal.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 2/21/2013 12:05:29 AM
Recs: 0

All my trades are fully documented real time on CAPS and Twitter. When I short Oncolytics, it will be recorded here that day. Sadly, today's dilution may have postponed that opportunity for a while.

Member Avatar fresnarus (< 20) Submitted: 2/22/2013 1:18:21 AM
Recs: 0

Unlike you, my rating of ONCY was backed up by a concurrent hard-money position. Maybe you should save your red-thumbing until you're ready to act next time.

That said, the $4/share offering price did seem a bit low to me, given the pre-offer price of $4.66/share. Indeed, if they had simply given away the 9.2M new shares for free (or issued a stock split) then the new diluted price of all shares should have been $4.66 x 76.69/(76.68 + 9.2) = $4.16/share. It looks like the underwriters got a bargain deal, but at least it prevented manipulators or actual hard-money shorts from attempting to interfere with the offering.

Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 2/27/2013 1:06:33 PM
Recs: 0

What does The Fool Game have to do with real life? Nothing.

Anyhow, I think it is now apparent that Reolysin does work. I established a long position. Cost-basis irrelevant at these levels.

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