Oncothyreon, Inc. (NASDAQ:ONTY)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/12/2011 7:22:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $4.13 ONTY Score: +11.29

Topline data from the START trial of Stimuvax in NSCLC is expected to be released in June 2012, only five and a half short years since the initiation of the trial. That's been a five year wild ride of dilution and reverse split. As I've stated many times before, I expect the results of this trial to be negative since it's the product of post hoc data mining from a previous failed phase III trial. You have to admire the skill of management in preserving their inflated salaries for an extra six years or so. With only 29M in the bank it's highly likely Oncothyreon will dilute yet again before START results cut them off at the knees.

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 7/23/2011 3:51:11 PM
Recs: 0

Alcear, the author of this piece has offered no creditials and as stated is LONG, yet only has two articles. In the comment section you can get a flavor for some of the possible one sided issues in the article. The 90% claim is especially troubling. There are a host of assumptions made, and as pointed out in the comments some questionable data analysis, especially with the start date. One must weigh their own risk/reward and with numbers like $173 per share and with the "hope" of what is described as a miracle cure, I can understand some taking the risk side. zzlangerhans has demonstrated that while no one can bat perfectly on biopharms, especially with the FDA in the loop, that the failure rate is much higher than the success rate. The lofter your entry point, the loftier the crash if there are ANY issues at all. Good luck.

Member Avatar RBuskey106 (42.66) Submitted: 3/22/2012 6:36:54 PM
Recs: 0

Bad news priced in. Oversold. Could be good for a short term bounce + longer term hold.

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