Optimal Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPMR)
CAPS Rating:
The Company is a payments company with operations throughout North America, the United Kingdom and Ireland. It currently operates in three segments.
The Company is a payments company with operations throughout North America, the United Kingdom and Ireland. It currently operates in three segments.
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Recs
OPMR has been beaten down with the rest of the online gambling world since the U.S. Govt passed legislation last fall. The good news is that this company is still going to be profitable and has room to grow in the coming years. Even with the possibility of paying $20M to the U.S. Govt, OPMR still trades at book value. I am sure some people would argue over the true value of Goodwill on the balance sheet, but the future earnings right now are just about free.
If we assume that the stock is trading at or close to intrinsic value, then the earnings should be valued at the following: Taking the estimates of the 2 analysts(not a statistically high sample) covering the stock, EPS for 07 and 08 are $.22 and $.62 respectively. YahooFinance lists the 5 year growth rate at over 60%. I am not about to suggest that the earnings should be worth $37.20 (=$.62 x 60) but that is a nice ceiling. Lets say that the EPS for 07 is even half the estimate of $.11/share. Multiply that by a 20% growth rate, and you get $2.20 per share. That is a 28% return over the current share price ($7.74/share).
There are a lot of holes in my argument regarding earnings estimates and growth rates as I only have analyst estimates to justify them. My excuse is that I am on vacation and don't want to look through anymore SEC Filings and figure out a DCF. If those 2 analysts are worth even half their salaries, then there is significant upside to this beaten down stock.
One last thing to note: This company has a high rate of share dilution that could really slow down earnings in the future. But for the short term, this is a great value play.