Opexa Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:OPXA)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company developing autologous cellular therapies to treat several major illnesses, including multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.82) Submitted: 11/8/2011 2:41:03 PM : Underperform Start Price: $5.60 OPXA Score: +12.97

I was actually thinking about green thumbing Opexa yesterday after I noticed they had fallen through the lower end of my value range, but I decided to revise the range downward instead. What I saw in the latest PR was a complete lack of resources and commitment to the phase III trial of Tovaxin in multiple sclerosis. The company made a lot of vague, boilerplate references regarding preparations for the trial, but provided no timeline for study initiation. Here's the critical sentence:

"Moving forward, we expect to maintain our focus on implementing operational steps in anticipation of continuing the clinical study of Tovaxin and working to secure the necessary resources to support such a study.”

In other words, they don't have the resources to go ahead with the study. Meanwhile, they'll collect their salaries, benefits, and options until those resources somehow materialize or the remaining cash is gone. This is the exact same position they were in a year and a half ago, except there are more shares now due to dilution. I expect that pathway of dilution to continue, as the word "partnership" does not appear in the PR. The concept of a partner for Tovaxin was popular in 2010 but lately it doesn't seem likely that one will materialize.

By deferring on the green thumb, I missed an opportunity to gain 40 points when the stock gapped up on announcement of FDA Fast Track designation for Tovaxin. Whoop dee doo. The concept of Fast Track designation adding value to a stock has been thoroughly debunked. Several analyses have shown it does not affect the likelihood of approval and only slightly affects the timeline of commercialization. But that doesn't seem to be stopping the Opexics from buying. Of course, this is the same stock that gapped up six months ago because the Red Cross agreed to supply them with blood.

Soon investors will realize that Fast Track designation will not attract a partner nor will it accelerate the initiation of a phase III trial, and then the share price will be headed back towards 1.

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/9/2011 1:30:31 PM
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I see that I parrotted much of your thoughts before I read them!! I was trying to catch up pitches from memory. Nice leading upthumb and leading downthumb pitches!
+1 on this one since you said what I said even better! ;)

Member Avatar blessedbyhim (37.87) Submitted: 11/16/2011 12:31:19 AM
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Ho ho. Learn something every day. I see my rationale was torched, but I thank you for it. If Fast Track status doesn't help a stock's chances of making money, then I was mistaken to use that in my rationale.

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