+ Watch OSIR
on My Watchlist
A stem cell therapeutic company focused on developing and marketing products to treat medical conditions in the inflammatory, orthopedic and cardiovascular areas.
Osiris Theropeutics Inc is the type of low float stock with heavy short interest that can turn into a rocket ship for a brief time. Shorts cover, reup, cover again, and speculators check in to see what all the news is about. I'm all for biopharms that meet a medical need, especially one as severe as graft vs host disease in children who have had bone marrow transplants. These type of equities generally also garner a following who could care less about any realistic valuation metrics on drug that deserves a halo. The drug was approved for use in limited situations in Canada last month starting the cycle of speculation and short covering and now by New Zealand. The market is limited, although costing may be high. The signaling from the Canadian authories was that the data was inconclusive and was sub catagorized to show some possible benefit. The outlook is so dire and risk of harm so low that approval was granted. This is not nearly enough basis to get approval in countries such as the US.Osiris has other irons in the fire, but nothing of consequence in the near term. The reality is that Osiris Therapeutics, Inc has a high cash burn rate and I fully expect them to take this near doubling in three weeks to execute additional financing. In the meantime, I don't expect the orders cover the manufacturing cost and the increase in S&G to get market growth.Once the shorts lick their wounds and leave this low float equity alone for a time and speculators get "bored" Osiris share price will retreat from the $13 it has peaked two. It migiht go up another few percent from here, I normally like to see volume drop more before entering the downside, but the chance of putting me into the red by more than a few percent seems low compared to the odds this will turn downward with little warning.All the best to the company and to anyone Prochymal helps.
One of the things I don't hear about though with OSIR is its involvement with wound care - a $10 billiion industry and growing with the aging of baby boomers. Their involvement with wound care also has implications for chronic ailments like eczema, etc. What are your thoughts?
dft7, good question, and I agree the wound care seems to be overlooked right now. I meant to turn my "lick thier wounds" comment into a pun on it, but missed. A $10 Billion dollar industry may seem like a large field, but if you bifricate it to all the players and put limits on profit (i.e. Medicare) it doesn't go far in the long run. I followed BONE in this area for some time. They are tempting again, insiders are buying, but overall the market doesn't scale as much as people had hoped.Right now the wound care doesn't come close to covering the cash burn rate if if Prochymal doesn't pan out financially. Ford also brands garden tractors. If they stopped selling cars, would you be interested in their stock? This might be a long term play from other products they may develop, but I wouldn't pay them for a car they haven't yet designed, but was 90% of their market cap already.Best of luck.
Well, OSIR did fall rather dramatically today within minutes - from 13 to 11. Flash crash??? Already back up in after-market trading.
After market is low volume so far and some of the trades could be "interbrokerage" settling. On big moves you see some trades that are between MM's that didn't book during the trading day. Hard to say so far. The selling clearly dumped some stops and I'd be surprised if that much will "come back" in step trading rather than by "normal" "curves". At any rate, never bank on after hours sentiment on low volume.Could be leak of financing news that I was expecting or the short cycle finally caved. Investing on a ramp up like OSIR has had the last few days is not investing on fundamentals, it's speculating on something that 95% of the time, (and only the other 5 if there was a "hidden catalyst), doesn't hold. May come back some tomorrow, but I think at this point its "broken".
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